干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化

Arid

	利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化
其他题名	Forecast on changes of steppe degradation patterns in the Xilin River Basin, Inner Mongolia: an application of Markov process
	仝川 1; 郝敦元 2; 高霞 2; 姜庆宏 1; 雍世鹏 1
来源期刊	自然资源学报
ISSN	1000-3037
出版年	2002
卷号	17 期号:4 页码:488-493
中文摘要	以我国北方典型草原模式地段之一的锡林河流域草原为研究对象，根据研究区两个时期遥感影像解译的植被类型图衍生出草原植被退化图。在对草原退化图统一网格化后，计算各网格草原退化指数，并加以分级，确定不同草原经等级之间转移概率，并应用马尔柯夫模型预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的演变趋势。结果表明：如果不采取防止草地退化的根本性措施，草原退化态势还将继续下去，以每个网格草原退化指数值为各网格草原退化状况划分依据，以3km*3km网格为统计单元，在流域总面积为10701km^2情况下，预测结果是：2005年，锡林河流域草原退化为3级的网格总面积是3776km^2，占流域总面积的35.29；4、5级网格面积之和为5427km^2，达到流域总面积的50.71。2025年，锡林河流域草原退化为3级的网络面积总和是3389m^2，占流域总面积的31.67；4、5级网格面积之和为6406km^2，达到流域总面积的59.86。
英文摘要	At present, steppe degradation is a major environmental problem in Inner Mongolia of China, resulting in desertification and reduction of steppe productivity. However, data on area, change and forecast of steppe degradation is inadequate at regional level.Steppe in the Xilin River Basin is one of the typical patterns in pastoral area of northern China, it is also one of the most important husbandry bases in Inner Mongolia and an UNESCO/MAB Biosphere Reserve.Using Landsat TM images of 1985 and 1999,and combining with field community investi-gation, we compiled steppe vegetation maps in 1985 and 1999 of the Xilin River Basin.Further, according to the model of degradation succession of typical steppe in Inner Mongolia,we com-piled steppe degradation maps.Supported with ARC/INFO and ARC/VIEW,grid sampling on steppe degradation map was finished, the size of each grid is 3 kmx3 km.Based on steppe degra-dation index (SDI) aggregating the information of area and grade of steppe degradation developed by the authors,the SDI of each grid was calculated. The values of SDI were divided into five grades to indicate the degree of steppe degradation increase.In 1999,the total area of grids where the value of SDI is 3 is 3924 km2,36.67% of the total area of the Xilin River Basin; the total area of grids where the value of SDI is 4 and 5 is 5049 km2 , 47.18% of the total area.Then, the translation probability matrix from 1985 to 1999 of different grade of degraded steppe was calculated. With application of Markov process, the changing trend of steppe degra-dation pattern in the Xilin River Basin was forecasted. The results showed that if no fundmental measures are taken to prevent steppe degradation in this region, the trend of degradation will continue. That is to say, the area of steppe at grades 1, 2 and 3 will decrease, and that of grades 4 and 5 will increase. Up to 2025,the total area of grids where the value of SDI is 3 is 3 389 km2, 31.67% of the total area of the Xilin River Basin; the total area of grids where the value of SDI is 4 and 5 is 6 406 km2, 59.86% of the total area.
中文关键词	马尔柯夫过程 ; 锡林河流域 ; 退化格局 ; 草原退化预测 ; 草原退化指数 ; 转移矩阵 ; 土地荒漠化
英文关键词	steppe degradation forecast steppe degradation index markov process transition probability matrix geographic information system Xilin River Basin
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1114627
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/203776
作者单位	1.内蒙古大学自然资源研究所, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010021, 中国; 2.内蒙古大学数学系, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010021, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	仝川,郝敦元,高霞,等. 利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化[J],2002,17(4):488-493.
APA	仝川,郝敦元,高霞,姜庆宏,&雍世鹏.(2002).利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化.自然资源学报,17(4),488-493.
MLA	仝川,et al."利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化".自然资源学报 17.4(2002):488-493.