Arid
DOI10.1007/s00704-016-1873-z
Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)
Fniguire, Fatima1,2; Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine1,2; Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi3; Zamrane, Zineb1,2; El Himer, Hicham1,2; Khalil, Nourddine1,2
通讯作者Fniguire, Fatima
来源期刊THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
EISSN1434-4483
出版年2017
卷号130期号:1-2页码:321-330
英文摘要

In the last few decades, drought has become a chronic phenomenon in Morocco. It began at the end of the 1970s and continued to the late 2000s. In the present study, hydrometeorological data sets, Standardized Precipitation Index method, and non-parametric tests were used to recognize the frequency and the severity of drought events during the period between 1929 and 2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index showed significant inter-annual fluctuation and evolution of rainfall amounts representing wet cycles (i.e., before 1975) followed by a long period of drought between 1975 and 2004. The inter-annual variability of rainfall is accompanied by shifts of stationarity in the rainfall series. The statistical test of Pettitt, Bayesian method of Lee and Heghinian, Buishand procedure, and Hubert test revealed shifts around the mid 70s. After this period, a deficit of rainfall (with a maximum value of -30 %) was registered. The probabilities of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index values were normal to below normal during the last 40 years. In fact, the increase of drought risk may be resulted from the increase of frequency and severity of meteorological drought. The proposed Standardized Precipitation Index method and non-parametric tests yielded reasonable and satisfactory results for Morocco. Therefore, this approach could be successfully applied to other semi-arid, dry, sub-humid, or semi-humid regions worldwide, where rainfall series are showing high seasonality and year-to-year variability.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Morocco
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410769100023
WOS关键词STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; SERIAL ; TESTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/202684
作者单位1.Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco;
2.Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco;
3.Cadi Ayyad Univ, Fac Sci & Tech, Marrakech 40000, Morocco
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Fniguire, Fatima,Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine,Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi,et al. Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)[J],2017,130(1-2):321-330.
APA Fniguire, Fatima,Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine,Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi,Zamrane, Zineb,El Himer, Hicham,&Khalil, Nourddine.(2017).Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco).THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,130(1-2),321-330.
MLA Fniguire, Fatima,et al."Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 130.1-2(2017):321-330.
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