Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s00704-016-1873-z |
Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco) | |
Fniguire, Fatima1,2; Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine1,2; Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi3; Zamrane, Zineb1,2; El Himer, Hicham1,2; Khalil, Nourddine1,2 | |
通讯作者 | Fniguire, Fatima |
来源期刊 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0177-798X |
EISSN | 1434-4483 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 130期号:1-2页码:321-330 |
英文摘要 | In the last few decades, drought has become a chronic phenomenon in Morocco. It began at the end of the 1970s and continued to the late 2000s. In the present study, hydrometeorological data sets, Standardized Precipitation Index method, and non-parametric tests were used to recognize the frequency and the severity of drought events during the period between 1929 and 2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index showed significant inter-annual fluctuation and evolution of rainfall amounts representing wet cycles (i.e., before 1975) followed by a long period of drought between 1975 and 2004. The inter-annual variability of rainfall is accompanied by shifts of stationarity in the rainfall series. The statistical test of Pettitt, Bayesian method of Lee and Heghinian, Buishand procedure, and Hubert test revealed shifts around the mid 70s. After this period, a deficit of rainfall (with a maximum value of -30 %) was registered. The probabilities of monthly Standardized Precipitation Index values were normal to below normal during the last 40 years. In fact, the increase of drought risk may be resulted from the increase of frequency and severity of meteorological drought. The proposed Standardized Precipitation Index method and non-parametric tests yielded reasonable and satisfactory results for Morocco. Therefore, this approach could be successfully applied to other semi-arid, dry, sub-humid, or semi-humid regions worldwide, where rainfall series are showing high seasonality and year-to-year variability. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Morocco |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410769100023 |
WOS关键词 | STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; SERIAL ; TESTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/202684 |
作者单位 | 1.Cadi Ayyad Univ, GeoStruct Geomat & Hydr Resources Lab GEOHYD, Fac Sci Semlalia, PB 2390, Marrakech 40000, Morocco; 2.Natl Ctr Sci & Tech Res, Associated Team, URAC, Marrakech 44, Morocco; 3.Cadi Ayyad Univ, Fac Sci & Tech, Marrakech 40000, Morocco |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fniguire, Fatima,Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine,Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi,et al. Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)[J],2017,130(1-2):321-330. |
APA | Fniguire, Fatima,Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine,Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi,Zamrane, Zineb,El Himer, Hicham,&Khalil, Nourddine.(2017).Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco).THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,130(1-2),321-330. |
MLA | Fniguire, Fatima,et al."Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 130.1-2(2017):321-330. |
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