Arid
DOI10.1007/s00704-016-1898-3
Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis
Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid
通讯作者Safavi, Hamid R.
来源期刊THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
EISSN1434-4483
出版年2017
卷号130期号:1-2页码:635-653
英文摘要

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410769100047
WOS关键词ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; DEW-POINT TEMPERATURE ; RIVER-BASIN ; SNOW COVER ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; HOMOGENEITY TEST ; CROP PRODUCTION ; UNITED-STATES ; NORTH-AMERICA
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/202680
作者单位Isfahan Univ Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Esfahan 8415683111, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Safavi, Hamid R.,Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi,Raghibi, Vahid. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis[J],2017,130(1-2):635-653.
APA Safavi, Hamid R.,Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi,&Raghibi, Vahid.(2017).Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,130(1-2),635-653.
MLA Safavi, Hamid R.,et al."Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 130.1-2(2017):635-653.
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