干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2021 similar to 2100 compared to those during 1961 similar to 2005. Precipitation shows an increasing trend in the TRB, but which decreases and then increases in the YRB, with a turning point in the middle of twenty-first Century. The ranges in annual precipitation increase with the increase in the scenario emissions in the future. Note that the Tarim River Basin is more vulnerable to the impact of emissions, especially for annual or spring and winter precipitation. Based on the uncertainty of CMIP5 data, the links between future precipitation changes and the elevation and relief amplitude were evaluated. The change of precipitation decreases with elevation, relief amplitude in the TRB, while it increases with elevation but decreases with relief amplitude in the YRB.