Arid
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.017
Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models
Leng, Guoyong
通讯作者Leng, Guoyong
来源期刊SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
EISSN1879-1026
出版年2017
卷号607页码:683-690
英文摘要

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota, Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Crop yields Variability Stability Climate change Crop models Statistical models
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000408755300068
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; WHEAT ; US ; MAIZE ; TEMPERATURE ; WATER ; PRODUCTIVITY ; AGRICULTURE ; PROTOCOLS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/202250
作者单位Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
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Leng, Guoyong. Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models[J],2017,607:683-690.
APA Leng, Guoyong.(2017).Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,607,683-690.
MLA Leng, Guoyong."Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 607(2017):683-690.
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