Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.017 |
Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models | |
Leng, Guoyong | |
通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
来源期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
![]() |
ISSN | 0048-9697 |
EISSN | 1879-1026 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 607页码:683-690 |
英文摘要 | The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota, Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Crop yields Variability Stability Climate change Crop models Statistical models |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408755300068 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; WHEAT ; US ; MAIZE ; TEMPERATURE ; WATER ; PRODUCTIVITY ; AGRICULTURE ; PROTOCOLS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/202250 |
作者单位 | Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leng, Guoyong. Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models[J],2017,607:683-690. |
APA | Leng, Guoyong.(2017).Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,607,683-690. |
MLA | Leng, Guoyong."Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 607(2017):683-690. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Leng, Guoyong]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Leng, Guoyong]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Leng, Guoyong]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。