Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1002/met.1635 |
An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors | |
Choubin, B.1; Malekian, A.2; Samadi, S.3; Khalighi-Sigaroodi, S.2; Sajedi-Hosseini, F.1 | |
通讯作者 | Malekian, A. |
来源期刊 | METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
![]() |
ISSN | 1350-4827 |
EISSN | 1469-8080 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 24期号:3页码:376-386 |
英文摘要 | A case study examining ensemble forecasts of semi-arid seasonal precipitation is presented. The focus is on computing an appropriate correlation between large-scale climate predictors and seasonal precipitation over a long-term forecast period (1967-2009) for a semi-arid catchment in Iran. Potential predictors of the dominant precipitation modes were identified from several large-scale climate features using principal component analysis. Linear regression together with two nonlinear models, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the multi-layer perceptron, was applied to forecast seasonal ensemble precipitation time series. The analysis suggests that seasonal precipitation is statistically aligned with the predictor’s variability. An ensemble forecast of spring precipitation modes showed a stronger correlation with the preceding season (winter predictors) in the ANFIS algorithm. The potential effect of climate predictors during the spring may lead to severe and longer hydrological extremes especially when they are out of phase or coincident. These results highlight that skilful prediction of semi-arid spring precipitation may be possible using winter predictors and a nonlinear ensemble forecast model. |
英文关键词 | large-scale climate predictors ensemble forecast of precipitation hydrological extremes semi-arid region |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran ; USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000405396000006 |
WOS关键词 | FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; NETWORK ; SIGNALS ; ANFIS ; INDEX ; ENSO ; IRAN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/201082 |
作者单位 | 1.Sari Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Watershed Management Engn, Sari, Iran; 2.Univ Tehran, Dept Reclamat Arid & Mt Reg, Karaj, Iran; 3.Univ South Carolina, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Columbia, SC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choubin, B.,Malekian, A.,Samadi, S.,et al. An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors[J],2017,24(3):376-386. |
APA | Choubin, B.,Malekian, A.,Samadi, S.,Khalighi-Sigaroodi, S.,&Sajedi-Hosseini, F..(2017).An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,24(3),376-386. |
MLA | Choubin, B.,et al."An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 24.3(2017):376-386. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。