Arid
DOI10.1002/met.1635
An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors
Choubin, B.1; Malekian, A.2; Samadi, S.3; Khalighi-Sigaroodi, S.2; Sajedi-Hosseini, F.1
通讯作者Malekian, A.
来源期刊METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN1350-4827
EISSN1469-8080
出版年2017
卷号24期号:3页码:376-386
英文摘要

A case study examining ensemble forecasts of semi-arid seasonal precipitation is presented. The focus is on computing an appropriate correlation between large-scale climate predictors and seasonal precipitation over a long-term forecast period (1967-2009) for a semi-arid catchment in Iran. Potential predictors of the dominant precipitation modes were identified from several large-scale climate features using principal component analysis. Linear regression together with two nonlinear models, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the multi-layer perceptron, was applied to forecast seasonal ensemble precipitation time series. The analysis suggests that seasonal precipitation is statistically aligned with the predictor’s variability. An ensemble forecast of spring precipitation modes showed a stronger correlation with the preceding season (winter predictors) in the ANFIS algorithm. The potential effect of climate predictors during the spring may lead to severe and longer hydrological extremes especially when they are out of phase or coincident. These results highlight that skilful prediction of semi-arid spring precipitation may be possible using winter predictors and a nonlinear ensemble forecast model.


英文关键词large-scale climate predictors ensemble forecast of precipitation hydrological extremes semi-arid region
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000405396000006
WOS关键词FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; NETWORK ; SIGNALS ; ANFIS ; INDEX ; ENSO ; IRAN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/201082
作者单位1.Sari Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Watershed Management Engn, Sari, Iran;
2.Univ Tehran, Dept Reclamat Arid & Mt Reg, Karaj, Iran;
3.Univ South Carolina, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Columbia, SC USA
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GB/T 7714
Choubin, B.,Malekian, A.,Samadi, S.,et al. An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors[J],2017,24(3):376-386.
APA Choubin, B.,Malekian, A.,Samadi, S.,Khalighi-Sigaroodi, S.,&Sajedi-Hosseini, F..(2017).An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,24(3),376-386.
MLA Choubin, B.,et al."An ensemble forecast of semi-arid rainfall using large-scale climate predictors".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 24.3(2017):376-386.
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