Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.043 |
Future aridity under conditions of global climate change | |
Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi1,2; Sivakumar, Bellie1,3; Malekinezhad, Hossein2; Sharma, Ashish1 | |
通讯作者 | Sivakumar, Bellie |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
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ISSN | 0022-1694 |
EISSN | 1879-2707 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 554页码:451-469 |
英文摘要 | Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (20062025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Aridity Climate change Global climate models CMIP5 Nested bias correction |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia ; Iran ; USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000415769600033 |
WOS关键词 | BIAS-CORRECTION METHODS ; REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CMIP5 ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; DROUGHT ; INDEXES ; EVENTS ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
来源机构 | University of California, Davis |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/200599 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 2.Yazd Univ, Fac Nat Resources, Yazd, Iran; 3.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,Sivakumar, Bellie,Malekinezhad, Hossein,et al. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change[J]. University of California, Davis,2017,554:451-469. |
APA | Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,Sivakumar, Bellie,Malekinezhad, Hossein,&Sharma, Ashish.(2017).Future aridity under conditions of global climate change.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,554,451-469. |
MLA | Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,et al."Future aridity under conditions of global climate change".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 554(2017):451-469. |
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