Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.043
Future aridity under conditions of global climate change
Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi1,2; Sivakumar, Bellie1,3; Malekinezhad, Hossein2; Sharma, Ashish1
通讯作者Sivakumar, Bellie
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
EISSN1879-2707
出版年2017
卷号554页码:451-469
英文摘要

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (20062025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Aridity Climate change Global climate models CMIP5 Nested bias correction
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia ; Iran ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000415769600033
WOS关键词BIAS-CORRECTION METHODS ; REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CMIP5 ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; DROUGHT ; INDEXES ; EVENTS ; TRENDS
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构University of California, Davis
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/200599
作者单位1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;
2.Yazd Univ, Fac Nat Resources, Yazd, Iran;
3.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA
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Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,Sivakumar, Bellie,Malekinezhad, Hossein,et al. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change[J]. University of California, Davis,2017,554:451-469.
APA Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,Sivakumar, Bellie,Malekinezhad, Hossein,&Sharma, Ashish.(2017).Future aridity under conditions of global climate change.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,554,451-469.
MLA Zarch, Mohammad Amin Asadi,et al."Future aridity under conditions of global climate change".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 554(2017):451-469.
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