Arid
DOI10.3808/jei.201700359
An Integrated Risk Analysis Method for Planning Water Resource Systems to Support Sustainable Development of An Arid Region
Li, Y. P.1; Nie, S.2; Huang, Charley Z.3; McBean, E. A.4; Fan, Y. R.5; Huang, G. H.6
通讯作者Li, Y. P.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATICS
ISSN1726-2135
EISSN1684-8799
出版年2017
卷号29期号:1页码:1-15
英文摘要

An interval-based two-stage risk analysis (ITRA) method is developed for planning water resource systems associated with uncertainties presented in terms of probability distributions and interval values. Risk measures are employed to assess the impacts of degrees of the preference of decision makers on the tradeoff between system benefits and expected economic losses. ITRA is applied to a case study of the Kaidu-kongque watershed located in an arid region of northwestern China. A series of scenarios are examined based on different risk measures, results of which reflect decision makers’ attitudes toward risk aversion and options for water-resource allocation under system-reliability levels. Results disclose that both uncertainties of system components and risk attitudes of decision makers have significant effects on water-allocation patterns and economic benefits. Model outputs link the pre-regulated water-allocation targets in decision making with various scales of regionalization policies (due to existence of uncertainties of meeting target flows). Results reveal that the competitiveness can exacerbate the ecological water shortage when limited water resources are available for multiple users in the arid region. The methodology and findings can help managers to gain scientific understanding of the consequences of water allocation decisions when planning in a fast-growing economic development and extremely arid region.


英文关键词conditional value-at-risk decision making optimization stochastic programming water resource systems uncertainty
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; Canada
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000399355600001
WOS关键词VALUE-AT-RISK ; TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; CONDITIONAL VALUE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; UNCERTAINTY ; MANAGEMENT ; OPTIMIZATION ; CRITERION ; CHINA
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构北京师范大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/200346
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Water Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Toronto, Fac Appl Sci & Engn, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada;
3.Univ British Columbia, Dept Civil Engn, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;
4.Univ Guelph, Sch Engn, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada;
5.Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada;
6.North China Elect Power Univ, MOE Key Lab Resources & Environm Syst Optimizat, UR NCEPU, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Y. P.,Nie, S.,Huang, Charley Z.,et al. An Integrated Risk Analysis Method for Planning Water Resource Systems to Support Sustainable Development of An Arid Region[J]. 北京师范大学,2017,29(1):1-15.
APA Li, Y. P.,Nie, S.,Huang, Charley Z.,McBean, E. A.,Fan, Y. R.,&Huang, G. H..(2017).An Integrated Risk Analysis Method for Planning Water Resource Systems to Support Sustainable Development of An Arid Region.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATICS,29(1),1-15.
MLA Li, Y. P.,et al."An Integrated Risk Analysis Method for Planning Water Resource Systems to Support Sustainable Development of An Arid Region".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATICS 29.1(2017):1-15.
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