Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.5043
Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: potential for improving seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts
Tozer, C. R.1,2; Kiem, A. S.1; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.3
通讯作者Tozer, C. R.
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2017
卷号37页码:861-877
英文摘要

Seasonal rainfall forecasts are an important tool for risk management across many sectors. However, significant challenges arise in the development of skilful and practically useful seasonal forecasts for regions where the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall is large and/or knowledge about what causes this variability is in its infancy. This is evident in the state of South Australia (SA), where seasonal rainfall currently has low predictive skill. The key climate processes have yet to be fully identified in SA and therefore may not be adequately represented in forecast models. The aim of this paper is to identify and quantify relationships between large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability across SA. We identify two distinct climate zones: (1) the arid northern region, where rainfall is mostly influenced by climate processes stemming from the tropical Indian and/or Pacific Oceans and (2) southern SA, which is dominated by Southern Ocean processes. The average percent of variability of SA rainfall accounted for by any single large-scale climate process (i.e. linear regression using a single predictor) is 8% in summer, 19% in autumn, 33% in winter and 24% in spring. However, when two or more processes are considered in combination (through multiple linear regression), this rises to 13, 26, 46, and 33%, respectively, highlighting the importance of capturing the interaction among multiple climate processes. Importantly, the findings from this study provide a set of metrics against which existing statistical and dynamical forecasting schemes can be tested and highlight processes that should be focused on in order to improve (or develop new) forecasting schemes. The study also recommends the need for further investigations into non-linear relationships between rainfall and large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and the development of more objective methods for determining which climate process, or combination of processes, are most important for a certain season or location.


英文关键词rainfall variability seasonal forecasting ocean-atmospheric ENSO IOD SAM IPO PDO ENSO Modoki STR blocking climate
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000417298600058
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY ; WATER-SUPPLY MANAGEMENT ; SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ; ANNULAR MODE ; PREDICTOR IDENTIFICATION ; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; WESTERN-AUSTRALIA ; EASTERN AUSTRALIA
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199735
作者单位1.Univ Newcastle, CWCL, Callaghan, NSW, Australia;
2.Univ Tasmania, Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia;
3.Univ Newcastle, Fac Sci & IT, Sch Environm & Life Sci, Environm & Climate Change Res Grp, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Tozer, C. R.,Kiem, A. S.,Verdon-Kidd, D. C.. Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: potential for improving seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts[J],2017,37:861-877.
APA Tozer, C. R.,Kiem, A. S.,&Verdon-Kidd, D. C..(2017).Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: potential for improving seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37,861-877.
MLA Tozer, C. R.,et al."Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: potential for improving seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017):861-877.
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