Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.4875
Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime
Machiwal, Deepesh1; Kumar, Sanjay2; Dayal, Devi1; Mangalassery, Shamsudheen1
通讯作者Machiwal, Deepesh
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2017
卷号37期号:5页码:2719-2733
英文摘要

This study aimed at identification of abrupt change points (CPs) and detection of gradual trends in 34-year (1980-2013) annual rainfall at nine stations of an Indian arid region. The CPs were determined by five tests and their significance was examined by two tests. Furthermore, trends were tested by three tests and their magnitudes were quantified by two tests. Novelty of the study lies in investigating significance of trends sequentially over years by applying Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The identified CPs were similar for standard normal homogeneity test and cumulative deviations test at most stations. In contrast, Pettitt and Bayesian tests detected CP in years 2002 and 2005 at six and three stations, respectively, and their significance was verified. Results of sequential M-K test did not match with other tests’ results. The mean annual rainfall after CP (350-627 mm) increased by 14-80% of the amount before CP (306-444 mm) with 7-42% reduction in coefficient of variation. The box-whisker plots supported these findings. Results of trend tests indicated statistically significant trends at Anjar, Bhachau, Mandvi and Rapar. Trend magnitudes by linear regression prior to CP (-6.2 to 7.1 mm year(-1)) showed an overall increase after CP (4.7-40.8 mm year(-1)) with negative trend at one station. Sen’s slope test, showing good harmony with linear regression, revealed that trend magnitudes after CP were 2-10 times higher than that for 34-year period at six stations. Results of M-K test applied for sequential periods emphasized that rainfall trends are becoming stronger over time. This finding suggests that significance level of increasing rainfall trends may further increase in future. Finally, findings of this study are useful for planners and decision makers for developing policies to meet the challenges of the heightened rainfall in study area. Also, the approach used here may be adopted in other parts of the globe.


英文关键词abrupt change arid region gradual trend multiple statistical tests rainfall series variability
类型Article
语种英语
国家India
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000398859700038
WOS关键词SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL ; LONG-TERM TRENDS ; TIME-SERIES ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; HOMOGENEITY TEST ; RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PERSISTENCE ; RECORDS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199723
作者单位1.ICAR Cent Arid Zone Res Inst, Reg Res Stn, Bhuj 370105, Gujarat, India;
2.ICAR CAZRI, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Bhuj, Gujarat, India
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Machiwal, Deepesh,Kumar, Sanjay,Dayal, Devi,et al. Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime[J]. ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute,2017,37(5):2719-2733.
APA Machiwal, Deepesh,Kumar, Sanjay,Dayal, Devi,&Mangalassery, Shamsudheen.(2017).Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(5),2719-2733.
MLA Machiwal, Deepesh,et al."Identifying abrupt changes and detecting gradual trends of annual rainfall in an Indian arid region under heightened rainfall rise regime".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.5(2017):2719-2733.
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