Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017 |
Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? | |
de Perez, Erin Coughlan1,3,4; Stephens, Elisabeth2; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos3; van Aalst, Maarten1,4; van den Hurk, Bart5; Mason, Simon4; Nissan, Hannah4; Pappenberger, Florian6 | |
通讯作者 | de Perez, Erin Coughlan |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
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ISSN | 1027-5606 |
EISSN | 1607-7938 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 21期号:9页码:4517-4524 |
英文摘要 | In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands ; England ; USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000409993900002 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE ; AFRICA ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; SCALE ; PART |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199529 |
作者单位 | 1.Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, NL-2521 CV The Hague, Netherlands; 2.Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AH, Berks, England; 3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 4.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, New York, NY 10964 USA; 5.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, NL-3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands; 6.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | de Perez, Erin Coughlan,Stephens, Elisabeth,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos,et al. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?[J],2017,21(9):4517-4524. |
APA | de Perez, Erin Coughlan.,Stephens, Elisabeth.,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos.,van Aalst, Maarten.,van den Hurk, Bart.,...&Pappenberger, Florian.(2017).Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,21(9),4517-4524. |
MLA | de Perez, Erin Coughlan,et al."Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 21.9(2017):4517-4524. |
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