Arid
DOI10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?
de Perez, Erin Coughlan1,3,4; Stephens, Elisabeth2; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos3; van Aalst, Maarten1,4; van den Hurk, Bart5; Mason, Simon4; Nissan, Hannah4; Pappenberger, Florian6
通讯作者de Perez, Erin Coughlan
来源期刊HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN1027-5606
EISSN1607-7938
出版年2017
卷号21期号:9页码:4517-4524
英文摘要

In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands ; England ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000409993900002
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE ; AFRICA ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; SCALE ; PART
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199529
作者单位1.Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, NL-2521 CV The Hague, Netherlands;
2.Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AH, Berks, England;
3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands;
4.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, New York, NY 10964 USA;
5.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, NL-3731 GA De Bilt, Netherlands;
6.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
de Perez, Erin Coughlan,Stephens, Elisabeth,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos,et al. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?[J],2017,21(9):4517-4524.
APA de Perez, Erin Coughlan.,Stephens, Elisabeth.,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos.,van Aalst, Maarten.,van den Hurk, Bart.,...&Pappenberger, Florian.(2017).Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,21(9),4517-4524.
MLA de Perez, Erin Coughlan,et al."Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 21.9(2017):4517-4524.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[de Perez, Erin Coughlan]的文章
[Stephens, Elisabeth]的文章
[Bischiniotis, Konstantinos]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[de Perez, Erin Coughlan]的文章
[Stephens, Elisabeth]的文章
[Bischiniotis, Konstantinos]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[de Perez, Erin Coughlan]的文章
[Stephens, Elisabeth]的文章
[Bischiniotis, Konstantinos]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。