Arid
DOI10.5194/hess-21-441-2017
Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?
Sippel, Sebastian1,2; Zscheischler, Jakob2; Heimann, Martin1; Lange, Holger3; Mahecha, Miguel D.1,4,5; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan6; Otto, Friederike E. L.7; Reichstein, Markus1,4,5
通讯作者Sippel, Sebastian
来源期刊HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN1027-5606
EISSN1607-7938
出版年2017
卷号21期号:1页码:441-458
英文摘要

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a "dry region of the globe". For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6% decade(-1) to +0.2 to +0.9% decade(-1) (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97% as opposed to +4.85% in the original study). If we include additional but less homoge-nized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1% decade(-1)), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth’s arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world’s dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stake-holders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Switzerland ; Norway ; Netherlands ; England
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000395175400002
WOS关键词TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE ; CLASSIFICATION ; INDEXES ; TRENDS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构University of Oxford
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199511
作者单位1.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany;
2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland;
3.Norwegian Inst Bioecon Res, As, Norway;
4.German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Leipzig, Germany;
5.Michael Stifel Ctr Jena Data Driven & Simulat Sci, Jena, Germany;
6.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, Weather & Climate Modeling, De Bilt, Netherlands;
7.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sippel, Sebastian,Zscheischler, Jakob,Heimann, Martin,等. Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?[J]. University of Oxford,2017,21(1):441-458.
APA Sippel, Sebastian.,Zscheischler, Jakob.,Heimann, Martin.,Lange, Holger.,Mahecha, Miguel D..,...&Reichstein, Markus.(2017).Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,21(1),441-458.
MLA Sippel, Sebastian,et al."Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 21.1(2017):441-458.
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