Arid
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.007
Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change
Gang, Chengcheng1,2,3; Zhang, Yanzhen3; Wang, Zhaoqi3; Chen, Yizhao3; Yang, Yue3; Li, Jianlong3; Cheng, Jimin1,2; Qi, Jiaguo4; Odeh, Inakwu5
通讯作者Gang, Chengcheng
来源期刊GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
EISSN1872-6364
出版年2017
卷号148页码:153-165
英文摘要

Understanding how terrestrial ecosystems would respond to future climate change can substantially contribute to scientific evaluation of the interactions between vegetation and climate. To reveal the future climate impacts might on the nature and magnitude of global vegetation, the spatiotemporal distribution and net primary productivity (NPP) of global terrestrial biomes and their dynamics in this century were quantitatively simulated and compared by using the improved Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System and the segmentation model. The 33 general circulation models under the four scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were utilized to simulate the future climate change. The multi-model ensemble results showed that at the global scale, the distribution of forests and deserts would expand by more than 2% and 4% over this century, respectively. By contrast, more than 11% of grassland regions would shrink. Despite the considerable differences in the simulated responses of the biomes, the poleward movement or expansion of temperate forest were prominent features across all the scenarios. Meanwhile, the terrestrial NPP was projected to increase by 7.44, 9.51, 9.46, and 12.02 Pg DW. a(-1) in 2070s relative to 1970s in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The largest NPP decrease would occur in tundra & alpine steppe. NPP in the Tropical Zone, the North Temperate Zone, and the North Frigid Zone was estimated to increase in this century, whereas NPP in the South Temperate Zone was projected to decrease slightly across all scenarios. Overall, ecosystems in the mid-/high latitudes would be more vulnerable to future climate change in terms of distribution ranges and primary productivity despite the existing uncertainties. Some vegetation would benefit from the warmer and wetter climate. However, most of these plants would suffer and experience irreversible changes, particularly in the northern hemisphere. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) Coupled model intercomparison project phase five (CMIP5) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Multi-model ensemble (MME) Net primary productivity (NPP) Terrestrial ecosystems
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; USA ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000393528200014
WOS关键词POTENTIAL NATURAL VEGETATION ; CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS ; SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS ; CLASSIFICATION-SYSTEM ; FOREST VEGETATION ; PLANT GEOGRAPHY ; GRASSLAND ; UNCERTAINTY ; PROJECTIONS ; SCENARIOS
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
来源机构西北农林科技大学 ; 南京大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/199342
作者单位1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ, Global Change Res Inst, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
4.Michigan State Univ, Ctr Global Change & Earth Observat, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA;
5.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gang, Chengcheng,Zhang, Yanzhen,Wang, Zhaoqi,et al. Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change[J]. 西北农林科技大学, 南京大学,2017,148:153-165.
APA Gang, Chengcheng.,Zhang, Yanzhen.,Wang, Zhaoqi.,Chen, Yizhao.,Yang, Yue.,...&Odeh, Inakwu.(2017).Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,148,153-165.
MLA Gang, Chengcheng,et al."Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 148(2017):153-165.
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