Arid
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3
Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2)
Greve, Peter1,2; Roderick, Michael L.3,4,5; Seneviratne, Sonia I.1
通讯作者Greve, Peter
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:11
英文摘要

Aridity is generally defined as the ’degree to which a climate lacks moisture to sustain life in terrestrial ecosystems’. Several recent studies using the ’aridity index’ (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), have concluded that aridity will increase with CO2 because of increasing temperature. However, the ’aridity index’ is-counterintuitively-not a direct measure of aridity per se (when defined as above) and there is widespread evidence that contradicts the ’warmer is more arid’ interpretation. We provide here an assessment of multi-model changes in a broad set of aridity metrics over a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from conditions at the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2), using an ensemble of simulations from state-of-the-art Earth system models. Most measures of aridity do not show increasing aridity on global scales under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, although we note some varying responses depending on the considered variables. The response is, furthermore, more nuanced at regional scales, but in the majority of regions aridity does not increase with CO2 in the majority of metrics. Our results emphasize that it is not the climate models that project overwhelming increases of aridity with increasing CO2, but rather a secondary, offline, impact model-the ’aridity index’-that uses climate model output as input.


英文关键词climate change aridity hydroclimatology climate models paleoclimate
类型Article
语种英语
国家Switzerland ; Austria ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000414674500001
WOS关键词CO2 FERTILIZATION ; CLIMATE ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; COVER ; EARTH ; DUST
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198764
作者单位1.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland;
2.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria;
3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia;
4.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT, Australia;
5.Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Sys, Canberra, ACT, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Greve, Peter,Roderick, Michael L.,Seneviratne, Sonia I.. Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2)[J],2017,12(11).
APA Greve, Peter,Roderick, Michael L.,&Seneviratne, Sonia I..(2017).Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2).ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11).
MLA Greve, Peter,et al."Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2)".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017).
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