Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3 |
Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2) | |
Greve, Peter1,2; Roderick, Michael L.3,4,5; Seneviratne, Sonia I.1 | |
通讯作者 | Greve, Peter |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:11 |
英文摘要 | Aridity is generally defined as the ’degree to which a climate lacks moisture to sustain life in terrestrial ecosystems’. Several recent studies using the ’aridity index’ (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), have concluded that aridity will increase with CO2 because of increasing temperature. However, the ’aridity index’ is-counterintuitively-not a direct measure of aridity per se (when defined as above) and there is widespread evidence that contradicts the ’warmer is more arid’ interpretation. We provide here an assessment of multi-model changes in a broad set of aridity metrics over a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from conditions at the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2), using an ensemble of simulations from state-of-the-art Earth system models. Most measures of aridity do not show increasing aridity on global scales under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, although we note some varying responses depending on the considered variables. The response is, furthermore, more nuanced at regional scales, but in the majority of regions aridity does not increase with CO2 in the majority of metrics. Our results emphasize that it is not the climate models that project overwhelming increases of aridity with increasing CO2, but rather a secondary, offline, impact model-the ’aridity index’-that uses climate model output as input. |
英文关键词 | climate change aridity hydroclimatology climate models paleoclimate |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland ; Austria ; Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414674500001 |
WOS关键词 | CO2 FERTILIZATION ; CLIMATE ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; COVER ; EARTH ; DUST |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198764 |
作者单位 | 1.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria; 3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 4.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 5.Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Sys, Canberra, ACT, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Greve, Peter,Roderick, Michael L.,Seneviratne, Sonia I.. Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2)[J],2017,12(11). |
APA | Greve, Peter,Roderick, Michael L.,&Seneviratne, Sonia I..(2017).Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2).ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11). |
MLA | Greve, Peter,et al."Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO(2)".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017). |
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