Arid
DOI10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.11.006
Propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in land cover change prediction process
Ferchichi, Ahlem1; Boulila, Wadii1,2; Farah, Imed Riadh1,2
通讯作者Ferchichi, Ahlem
来源期刊ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS
ISSN1574-9541
EISSN1878-0512
出版年2017
卷号37页码:24-37
英文摘要

An objective of satellite remote sensing is to predict or characterize the land cover change (LCC) over time. Sometimes we are capable of describing the changes of land cover with a probability distribution. However, we need sufficient knowledge about the natural variability of these changes, which is not always possible. In general, uncertainties can be subdivided into aleatory and epistemic. The main problem is that classical probability theory does not make a clear distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the way they are represented, i.e., both of them are described with a probability distribution. The aim of this paper is to propagate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty associated with both input parameters (features extracted from satellite image object) and model structure of LCC prediction process using belief function theory. This will help reducing in a significant way the uncertainty about future changes of land cover. In this study, the changes prediction of land cover in Cairo region, Egypt for next 16 years (2030) is anticipated using multi-temporal Landsat TM5 satellite images in 1987 and 2014. The LCC prediction model results indicated that 15% of the agriculture and 6.5% of the desert will be urbanized in 2030. We conclude that our method based on belief function theory has a potential to reduce uncertainty and improve the prediction accuracy and is applicable in LCC analysis. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词LCC prediction Aleatory-epistemic uncertainty Input parameters uncertainty Model structure uncertainty Parameter modeling Parameter estimation Correlation analysis Uncertainty propagation.
类型Article
语种英语
国家Tunisia ; France
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000393928900004
WOS关键词EVIDENTIAL BELIEF FUNCTIONS ; DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY ; FUZZY-SETS ; CLASSIFICATION ; MODEL ; IMAGE ; PARAMETERS ; REDUCTION ; FUSION ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Ecology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198460
作者单位1.Univ Manouba, RIADI Lab, Natl Sch Comp Sci, Manouba, Tunisia;
2.Telecom Bretagne, ITI Dept, Brest, France
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GB/T 7714
Ferchichi, Ahlem,Boulila, Wadii,Farah, Imed Riadh. Propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in land cover change prediction process[J],2017,37:24-37.
APA Ferchichi, Ahlem,Boulila, Wadii,&Farah, Imed Riadh.(2017).Propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in land cover change prediction process.ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS,37,24-37.
MLA Ferchichi, Ahlem,et al."Propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in land cover change prediction process".ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS 37(2017):24-37.
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