Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017 |
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures | |
Sanderson, Benjamin M.1; Xu, Yangyang2; Tebaldi, Claudia1; Wehner, Michael3; O’Neill, Brian1; Jahn, Alexandra4,5; Pendergrass, Angeline G.1; Lehner, Flavio1; Strand, Warren G.1; Lin, Lei6; Knutti, Reto1,7; Lamarque, Jean Francois1 | |
通讯作者 | Sanderson, Benjamin M. |
来源期刊 | EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 2190-4979 |
EISSN | 2190-4987 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 8期号:3页码:827-847 |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 degrees C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 degrees C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 degrees C levels and an overshoot 1.5 degrees C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60% greater frequency in the 2 degrees C climate than in a 1.5 degrees C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 degrees C climate than a 1.5 degrees C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 degrees C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; Peoples R China ; Switzerland |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411129600001 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; INTENSITY ; HALF |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198366 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX USA; 3.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA; 4.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 5.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 7.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sanderson, Benjamin M.,Xu, Yangyang,Tebaldi, Claudia,et al. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures[J],2017,8(3):827-847. |
APA | Sanderson, Benjamin M..,Xu, Yangyang.,Tebaldi, Claudia.,Wehner, Michael.,O’Neill, Brian.,...&Lamarque, Jean Francois.(2017).Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,8(3),827-847. |
MLA | Sanderson, Benjamin M.,et al."Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 8.3(2017):827-847. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。