Arid
DOI10.5194/esd-8-827-2017
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures
Sanderson, Benjamin M.1; Xu, Yangyang2; Tebaldi, Claudia1; Wehner, Michael3; O’Neill, Brian1; Jahn, Alexandra4,5; Pendergrass, Angeline G.1; Lehner, Flavio1; Strand, Warren G.1; Lin, Lei6; Knutti, Reto1,7; Lamarque, Jean Francois1
通讯作者Sanderson, Benjamin M.
来源期刊EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
ISSN2190-4979
EISSN2190-4987
出版年2017
卷号8期号:3页码:827-847
英文摘要

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 degrees C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 degrees C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 degrees C levels and an overshoot 1.5 degrees C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60% greater frequency in the 2 degrees C climate than in a 1.5 degrees C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 degrees C climate than a 1.5 degrees C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 degrees C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.


类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Peoples R China ; Switzerland
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000411129600001
WOS关键词EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; INTENSITY ; HALF
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198366
作者单位1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX USA;
3.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA;
4.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
5.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
7.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sanderson, Benjamin M.,Xu, Yangyang,Tebaldi, Claudia,et al. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures[J],2017,8(3):827-847.
APA Sanderson, Benjamin M..,Xu, Yangyang.,Tebaldi, Claudia.,Wehner, Michael.,O’Neill, Brian.,...&Lamarque, Jean Francois.(2017).Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,8(3),827-847.
MLA Sanderson, Benjamin M.,et al."Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 degrees C futures".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 8.3(2017):827-847.
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