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Middle Miocene Earth had several boundary conditions similar to those predicted for future Earth including similar atmospheric pCO(2) and substantial Antarctic ice cover but no northern hemisphere ice sheets. We describe a 12 m outcrop of the terrestrial Yanwan Section in the Tianshui Basin, Gansu, China, following the Miocene Climate Transition (13.9-13.7 Ma). It consists of similar to 25 cm thick CaCO3-cemented horizons that overprint siltstones every similar to 1 m. We suggest that stacked soils developed in siltstones under a seasonal climate with a fluctuating water table, evidenced by roots, clay films, mottling, presence of CaCO3 nodules, and stacked carbonate nodule delta C-13 and delta O-18 profiles that mimic modern soils. We suggest that the CaCO3-cemented horizons are capillary-fringe carbonates that formed in an arid climate with a steady water table and high potential evapotranspiration rates (PET), evidenced by sharp upper and basal contacts, micrite, sparite, and root-pore cements. The CaCO3 of the cemented horizons and the carbonate nodules have similar mean delta O-18 and delta C-13 values but the cements have significantly smaller variance in delta C-13 and delta O-18 values and a different delta O-18 versus delta C-13 slope, supporting the conclusion that these carbonates are from different populations. The magneto-stratigraphic age model indicates obliquity pacing of the arid conditions required to form the CaCO3-cemented horizons suggesting an orbital control on water availability. We suggest two possible drivers for the obliquity pacing of arid conditions: 1) variability in the cross-equatorial pressure gradient that controls summer monsoon (ASM) strength and is influenced by obliquity-paced variations of Antarctic ice volume and 2) variability in Western Pacific Ocean-East Asian continent pressure gradient controlled by the 25-45 N meridional insolation gradient. We also suggest that variations in aridity were influenced by variations in PET and sensible heating of the regional land surface which are both influenced by precession-controlled 35 degrees N summer insolation. We then use orbital configurations to predict lithology. Coincidence of obliquity minima (strong ASM) and 35 N summer insolation maxima (strong ASM) drives strong ASM and high PET, resulting in soil formation in an environment with relatively large seasonal changes in water availability. Coincidence of obliquity maxima (weak ASM) and 35 N summer insolation maxima (strong ASM) moderates the ASM, results in high PET, and thus drives overprinting of soils by capillary fringe carbonates above a deepened and relatively stable water table. Coincidence of obliquity and insolation minima also moderates the ASM but results in low PET and thus a high water table, which explains the previously documented occurrence of aquatic plants in this section. This context allows us to assign an orbital configuration to atmospheric pCO(2) determined from the paleosols. Our best estimate of pCO(2) during the times of intermediate ice volume is 475 + 650/-230 ppmV (median value with error reported as 84th-16th percentile values). Southern hemisphere control of ASM variability during the Middle Miocene may have resulted in larger orbital scale water availability variations compared with the Pleistocene. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.