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AimThe Asiatic cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, a critically endangered large felid, has disappeared from vast tracks of its historical range across south-western Asia. It is currently confined to the arid ecosystems of central Iran for which little is known about its distribution and habitat linkages. We proposed the first evaluation of Asiatic cheetah’s distribution and developed models of landscape suitability and connectivity to inform future conservation planning.

LocationCentral Iran.

MethodsWe analysed presence data of a 14-year-long cheetah monitoring programme according to environmental and anthropogenic factors, and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on seven species distribution models (SDMs). We then used the concept of circuit theory and landscape connectivity prioritization (LCP) on resultant core habitats and landscape suitability to evaluate potential linkages between core areas.

ResultsCore habitats, that is, the areas hosting the largest continuous suitable habitats for Asiatic cheetahs, covered approximately 49,144km(2) (c. 6.3% of the study area). Availability of prey species, avoidance of human-dominated areas and their infrastructures, and rough landscapes covered with sparse vegetation were the most predictive factors of the core habitats for the last cheetah population in Asia. Although relatively vast, the area of potential core habitats available to cheetahs appeared to be fragmented with limited connectivity between the northern and southern parts of this distribution.

Main conclusionsOur approach highlights the importance of distribution models to recognize, at a coarse-scale level, a spatial population structure and habitat suitability characteristics for a large carnivore surviving at very low density. We have identified specific areas of suitable habitat where developing new landscape protection and adaptive conservation management; and improving the safety of important linkages between core habitats are likely to promote the conservation of the last surviving population of cheetah in Asia.