Arid
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3343-9
A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport
Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.1; Brahmananda Rao, V.1,2; Rao, B. R. Srinivasa1; Prasad, D. Hari3; Rao, N. Nanaji1; Panda, Roshmitha1
通讯作者Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49期号:1-2页码:297-312
英文摘要

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2014 was erratic and ended up with a seasonal rainfall deficit of 12 % and a record drought in June. In this study we analyze the moisture transport characteristics for the monsoon season of 2014 using both NCEP FNL reanalysis (FNL) and CFSv2 (CFS) model data. In FNL, in June 2014 there was a large area of divergence of moisture flux. In other months also there was lesser flux. This probably is the cause of 2014 drought. The CFS model overestimated the drought and it reproduces poorly the observed rainfall over central India (65E-95E; 5N-35N). The correlation coefficient (CC) between the IMD observed rainfall and CFS model rainfall is only 0.1 while the CC between rainfall and moisture flux convergence in CFS model is only 0.20 and with FNL data -0.78. This clearly shows that the CFS model has serious difficulty in reproducing the moisture flux convergence and rainfall. We found that the rainfall variations are strongly related to the moisture convergence or divergence. The hypothesis of Krishnamurti et al. (J Atmos Sci 67:3423-3441, 2010) namely the intrusion of west African desert air and the associated low convective available potential energy inhibiting convection and rainfall shows some promise to explain dry spells in Indian summer monsoon. However, the rainfall or lack of it is mainly explained by convergence or divergence of moisture flux.


英文关键词Indian summer monsoon Rainfall Moisture budget Monsoon drought
类型Article
语种英语
国家India ; Brazil ; Saudi Arabia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000403716500017
WOS关键词EURASIAN SNOW COVER ; 1979 SUMMER MONSOON ; NORTHERN SUMMER ; ARABIAN-SEA ; HEAT-BUDGET ; OCEAN ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; BREAKS ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/198127
作者单位1.Andhra Univ, Dept Meteorol & Oceanog, Visakhaptnam, India;
2.CPTECH INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil;
3.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Phys Sci & Engn Div, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.,Brahmananda Rao, V.,Rao, B. R. Srinivasa,et al. A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport[J],2017,49(1-2):297-312.
APA Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.,Brahmananda Rao, V.,Rao, B. R. Srinivasa,Prasad, D. Hari,Rao, N. Nanaji,&Panda, Roshmitha.(2017).A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49(1-2),297-312.
MLA Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.,et al."A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49.1-2(2017):297-312.
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