Arid
DOI10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.050
An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE
Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Riikonen, K.
通讯作者Kukkonen, J.
来源期刊ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
ISSN1352-2310
EISSN1873-2844
出版年2017
卷号150页码:198-209
英文摘要

We present a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, "Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies". The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. We describe (i) the mathematical treatments of this model, (ii) a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and (iii) a new operational implementation of the model. The new mathematical treatments include state-of-the-art atmospheric vertical profiles and new submodels for dense gas and passive atmospheric dispersion. The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. For the latter campaign, the geometric mean bias was 1.72 (this corresponds to an underprediction of approximately 70%) and 0.71 (overprediction of approximately 30%) for the concentration and the plume half-width, respectively. The geometric variance was <1.5 (this corresponds to an agreement that is better than a factor of two). These values can be considered to indicate a good agreement of predictions and data, in comparison to values evaluated for a range of other similar models. The model has also been adapted to be able to automatically use the real time predictions and forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM, "High Resolution Limited Area Model". The operational implementation of the ESCAPE modelling system can be accessed anywhere using internet browsers, on laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.


英文关键词Heavy gas dispersion Model evaluation Thorney Island Desert Tortoise Real-time hazard modelling Web browser based application
类型Article
语种英语
国家Finland
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000392770700019
WOS关键词DENSE-GAS DISPERSION ; HEGADAS MODEL ; KIT FOX
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/197650
作者单位Finnish Meteorol Inst, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1,POB 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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GB/T 7714
Kukkonen, J.,Nikmo, J.,Riikonen, K.. An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE[J],2017,150:198-209.
APA Kukkonen, J.,Nikmo, J.,&Riikonen, K..(2017).An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,150,198-209.
MLA Kukkonen, J.,et al."An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 150(2017):198-209.
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