干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

The agent-based modelling (ABM) can illuminate how multi-dimensional process of public participation emerges from simple behavior rules. It can model the participation process which is too complicated using congenital approaches. In the present research, the social structure of human participation in managing livestock drinking water of arid rangelands in Yazd Province, Iran, was designed using the four steps of ABM. This study provides a true understanding of interactions of four agents including government, livestock beneficiaries, natural resources organization and NGOs with each other and with the natural environment. In order to achieve conceptual proof, the Delphi technique was applied for stepwise identification of agents and their real behaviors. Additionally, quantification of decision elements and decision-making hypotheses was examined using the Analytical Network Process (ANP). By confirming the conceptual validity of decision-making hypotheses through network analysis, the conceptual model was confirmed. The analysis demonstrates that "low income of livestock beneficiaries", "successive droughts and low rainfall" and "weakness of NGOs", with normal weights of 0.31, 0.15, and 0.09, respectively are three major drivers for problem of weak participation among local communities in the study area. This research is an example of incorporating the ABM approach in settling problems encountered with social system.