干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

A study was undertaken to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge under various climate change scenarios including the scenarios which influence the vadose zone processes and groundwater recharge for an agriculturally dominant semi-arid region. Climate change scenarios based on the predictions by Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were used in this study. Ground water recharge under different scenarios was simulated using HYDRUS-1D and MODFLOW models. Results indicated that the average groundwater recharge during 2030s may increase by 0.03m compared to 2005 if simulations were based on ARIMA predicted average annual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine hours. It was observed that the cumulative groundwater recharge in the study area would increase if all the climatic parameters are considered for climate change impact assessment. This is in contrary to common perception that the groundwater recharge would decrease in semi-arid region as a result of climate change. Average groundwater recharge would decrease by 0.09 to 0.21 under IPCC and 0.11 m under INCCA projected temperature during 2100s and 2030s, respectively.