Arid
DOI10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.07.007
Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions
Rad, Arash Modaresi1; Ghahraman, Bijan1; Khalili, Davar2; Ghahremani, Zahra1; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi1
通讯作者Rad, Arash Modaresi
来源期刊ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
ISSN0309-1708
EISSN1872-9657
出版年2017
卷号107页码:336-353
英文摘要

Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-tau and upper tail coefficient relation is investigated for all stations located within the region. According to results, SPSI similar to nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index (NMSDI) was able to detect both onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI and persistence of droughts dominated by streamflow as is similarly indicated by SDI. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. This makes SPSI a powerful tool for estimating a more practical and realistic drought condition. Finally, combination of severity-duration-frequency (SDF) of drought events through copulas resulted in SDF curves that can be used to obtain the recurrence of extreme droughts and assess drought related ecosystem failure or to aid in optimization of water resources allocation. Results indicated that the newly proposed index (SPSI) is able to represent two main characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought (drought onset and persistency) and also providing an accurate estimation of the recurrence interval of extreme droughts. The procedures can be used to undertake proactive water resource management and planning to assure water security and sustainable agriculture and ecosystem survival for regions experiencing extreme droughts. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Streamflow drought index (SDI) Standardized precipitation index (SPI) Copula Severity-duration-frequency curve Goodness of fit Entropy
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410674200026
WOS关键词TAIL-DEPENDENCE COEFFICIENT ; RETURN PERIOD ; NONPARAMETRIC-ESTIMATION ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; VEGETATIVE DROUGHT ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; RIVER-BASIN ; INDEX ; CLIMATE
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/197041
作者单位1.Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad, Water Engn Dept, Coll Agr, Azadi Sq, Mashhad, Iran;
2.Shiraz Univ, Water Engn Dept, Coll Agr, Shiraz Isfahan Rd, Shiraz, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rad, Arash Modaresi,Ghahraman, Bijan,Khalili, Davar,et al. Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions[J],2017,107:336-353.
APA Rad, Arash Modaresi,Ghahraman, Bijan,Khalili, Davar,Ghahremani, Zahra,&Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi.(2017).Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions.ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES,107,336-353.
MLA Rad, Arash Modaresi,et al."Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions".ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES 107(2017):336-353.
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