Arid
DOI10.1175/WAF-D-15-0073.1
Regional Soil Moisture Biases and Their Influence on WRF Model Temperature Forecasts over the Intermountain West
Massey, Jeffrey D.1; Steenburgh, W. James1; Knievel, Jason C.2; Cheng, William Y. Y.2
通讯作者Massey, Jeffrey D.
来源期刊WEATHER AND FORECASTING
ISSN0882-8156
EISSN1520-0434
出版年2016
卷号31期号:1页码:197-216
英文摘要

Operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts run over Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) in northwest Utah, produced by the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX), underpredict the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle during September and October. Mean afternoon [2000 UTC (1300 LST)] and early morning [1100 UTC (0400 LST)] 2-m temperature bias errors evaluated against 195 surface stations using 6- and 12-h forecasts are -1.37 degrees and 1.66 degrees C, respectively. Bias errors relative to soundings and 4DWX-DPG analyses illustrate that the afternoon cold bias extends from the surface to above the top of the planetary boundary layer, whereas the early morning warm bias develops in the lowest model levels and is confined to valleys and basins. These biases are largest during mostly clear conditions and are caused primarily by a regional overestimation of near-surface soil moisture in operational land surface analyses, which do not currently assimilate in situ soil moisture observations. Bias correction of these soil moisture analyses using data from 42 North American Soil Moisture Database stations throughout the Intermountain West reduces both the afternoon and early morning bias errors and improves forecasts of upper-level temperature and stability. These results illustrate that the assimilation of in situ and remotely sensed soil moisture observations, including those from the recently launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, have the potential to greatly improve land surface analyses and near-surface temperature forecasts over arid regions.


英文关键词Single column models Models and modeling Land surface model Mesoscale models Model evaluation/performance Model errors
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000370391400001
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY-LAYER ; NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; MESOGAMMA-SCALE ANALYSIS ; US-ARMY TEST ; PART I ; EVALUATION COMMAND ; CLOSURE-MODEL ; ETA MODELS ; SENSITIVITY ; SIMULATIONS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/196851
作者单位1.Univ Utah, Dept Atmospher Sci, Rm 819,135 South 1460 East, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA;
2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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Massey, Jeffrey D.,Steenburgh, W. James,Knievel, Jason C.,et al. Regional Soil Moisture Biases and Their Influence on WRF Model Temperature Forecasts over the Intermountain West[J],2016,31(1):197-216.
APA Massey, Jeffrey D.,Steenburgh, W. James,Knievel, Jason C.,&Cheng, William Y. Y..(2016).Regional Soil Moisture Biases and Their Influence on WRF Model Temperature Forecasts over the Intermountain West.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,31(1),197-216.
MLA Massey, Jeffrey D.,et al."Regional Soil Moisture Biases and Their Influence on WRF Model Temperature Forecasts over the Intermountain West".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 31.1(2016):197-216.
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