干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events would have profound impacts on both human society and the natural environment. In this paper, we present the results of a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal changes of extreme precipitation in the western United States. The analyses explore the spatial characterization of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-extreme precipitation response pattern and identify the multi-scale temporal variability in precipitation extremes in the western United States. Results indicate: (1) Extreme precipitation expressed in indices such as seasonal count of days when precipitation is large than 10 mm (R10), seasonal maximum 5-day precipitation (R5D), maximum length of dry spell (CDD), and seasonal total precipitation exceeding 95 percentile (R95) have a dipolar pattern and a transition zone which separates the west into two main dipolar centers regarded as Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest. The simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) has little correlation with large scale natural oscillations over most of the west. (2) The spatial distributions of annual trend of R10, R5D, SDII, and R95 have seasonal variability in southern California and Lower Colorado River Basin. (3) There are consistent multi-year bands ranging from 2 to 20 years in the R10, R5D, CDD, and R95 winter time series which may be caused by the inter-decadal or multi-decadal modulation of ENSO effects on precipitation extremes. The results can provide beneficial reference to the prediction of precipitation extremes in the west.