干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

A better understanding of the effects of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) on streamflow promotes the long-term water planning and management in the arid regions of northwestern China. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a separation approach were used to evaluate and separate the effects of climate change and LUCC on streamflow in the Xiying River basin. The SWAT model was calibrated by the hydro-meteorological data from 1980-1989 to obtain the optimum parameters, which were validated by the subsequent application to the period between 1990-2008. Moreover, streamflow under several scenarios with different climate change and land use conditions in 1990-2008 and 2010-2069 were further investigated. Results indicate that, in the period of 1990-2008, the streamflow was dominated by climate change (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature), which led to a 102.8% increase in the mean annual streamflow, whereas LUCC produced a decrease of 2.8%. Furthermore, in the future period of 2010-2039, the mean annual streamflow will decrease by 5.4% and 4.5% compared with the data of 1961-1990 under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, while it will decrease by 21.2% and 16.9% in the period of 2040-2069, respectively.