Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s00704-015-1457-3 |
Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices | |
Montazerolghaem, Maryam; Vervoort, Willem; Minasny, Budiman; McBratney, Alex | |
通讯作者 | Montazerolghaem, Maryam |
来源期刊 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0177-798X |
EISSN | 1434-4483 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 124期号:3-4页码:1045-1063 |
英文摘要 | Knowledge about future rainfall is important for agriculture management and planning in arid and semi-arid regions. Australia has complex variations in rainfall patterns in time and space, arising from the combination of the geographic structure and the dual effects of Indian and Pacific Ocean. This study aims to develop a forecasting model of spatiotemporal monthly rainfall totals using lagged climate indices and historical rainfall data from 1950-2011 for south-eastern and eastern Australia. Data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) from 136 high-quality weather stations. To reduce spatial complexity, climate regionalization was used to divide the stations in homogenous sub-regions based on similarity of rainfall patterns and intensity using principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering. Subsequently, a fuzzy ranking algorithm (FRA) was applied to the lagged climatic predictors and monthly rainfall in each sub-region to identify the best predictors. Selected predictors by FRA were found to vary by sub-region. After these two stages of pre-processing, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed and optimized separately for each sub-region and the entire area. The results indicate that climate regionalization can improve a monthly spatiotemporal rainfall forecast model. The location and number of sub-regions were important for ranking predictors and modeling. This further suggests that the impact of climate variables on Australian rainfall is more variable in both time and space than indicated thus far. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000374986500042 |
WOS关键词 | ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SEASONAL RAINFALL ; EL-NINO ; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ; OSCILLATION INDEX ; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; ANNULAR MODE ; WORLD MAP |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/196653 |
作者单位 | Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Montazerolghaem, Maryam,Vervoort, Willem,Minasny, Budiman,et al. Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices[J],2016,124(3-4):1045-1063. |
APA | Montazerolghaem, Maryam,Vervoort, Willem,Minasny, Budiman,&McBratney, Alex.(2016).Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,124(3-4),1045-1063. |
MLA | Montazerolghaem, Maryam,et al."Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 124.3-4(2016):1045-1063. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Spatiotemporal month(2558KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。