Arid
DOI10.1007/s00704-014-1365-y
Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study
Sigdel, Madan1,2,3; Ma, Yaoming2,3
通讯作者Sigdel, Madan
来源期刊THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
EISSN1434-4483
出版年2016
卷号123期号:3-4页码:453-460
英文摘要

Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions of Nepal. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model for the future. The average R (2) value during validation period was 0.84, indicating the good applicability of SDSM for simulating precipitation. Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal, the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75 % under scenario A2 and increase near about 11.68 % under scenario B2 in the 2050s. The model showed better performance over humid region; moreover, simulated results for the peak monsoon months seem to be overestimated over subhumid and arid regions.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Nepal ; Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000368714100003
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; SDSM ; TEMPERATURE ; OUTPUT
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构中国科学院青藏高原研究所
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/196650
作者单位1.Tribhuvan Univ, Cent Dept Hydrol & Meteorol, Kathmandu, Nepal;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
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Sigdel, Madan,Ma, Yaoming. Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,123(3-4):453-460.
APA Sigdel, Madan,&Ma, Yaoming.(2016).Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,123(3-4),453-460.
MLA Sigdel, Madan,et al."Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 123.3-4(2016):453-460.
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