Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1038/srep29962 |
Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble | |
Jiang, Mingkai; Felzer, Benjamin S.; Sahagian, Dork | |
通讯作者 | Jiang, Mingkai |
来源期刊 | SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
![]() |
ISSN | 2045-2322 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 6 |
英文摘要 | Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950-2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040-2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000379715200001 |
WOS关键词 | CALIFORNIA FLORISTIC PROVINCE ; HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; UNITED-STATES ; CONTRASTING ENVIRONMENTS ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC-NORTHWEST ; BIODIVERSITY ; EXTREMES ; DIVERSITY |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/196331 |
作者单位 | Lehigh Univ, Earth & Environm Sci, 1 W Packer Ave, Bethlehem, PA 18015 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiang, Mingkai,Felzer, Benjamin S.,Sahagian, Dork. Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble[J],2016,6. |
APA | Jiang, Mingkai,Felzer, Benjamin S.,&Sahagian, Dork.(2016).Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,6. |
MLA | Jiang, Mingkai,et al."Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 6(2016). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。