Arid
DOI10.1038/srep29962
Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble
Jiang, Mingkai; Felzer, Benjamin S.; Sahagian, Dork
通讯作者Jiang, Mingkai
来源期刊SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
出版年2016
卷号6
英文摘要

Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950-2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040-2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment.


类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000379715200001
WOS关键词CALIFORNIA FLORISTIC PROVINCE ; HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; UNITED-STATES ; CONTRASTING ENVIRONMENTS ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC-NORTHWEST ; BIODIVERSITY ; EXTREMES ; DIVERSITY
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/196331
作者单位Lehigh Univ, Earth & Environm Sci, 1 W Packer Ave, Bethlehem, PA 18015 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jiang, Mingkai,Felzer, Benjamin S.,Sahagian, Dork. Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble[J],2016,6.
APA Jiang, Mingkai,Felzer, Benjamin S.,&Sahagian, Dork.(2016).Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,6.
MLA Jiang, Mingkai,et al."Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous US Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 6(2016).
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