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This study illustrates an approach to early-warning assessment of desertification risk in Mediterranean agro-forest districts based on the concept of ’spatial convergence’ in Land Vulnerability to Degradation (LVD). We investigate long-term and short-term spatial convergence in LVD across 773 agro-forest districts with different biophysical and socioeconomic traits across Italy. We used the standard Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) based on climate, soil, vegetation and land management attributes as a proxy for LVD. Latitude, elevation and district size are considered as control variables. Results of the analysis show that more than half districts have experienced an increase in the average ESAI score between 1960 and 2010 and present distinct spatial patterns over three time intervals considered in the study: 1960-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. Convergence in LVD was observed between 1960 and 1990 especially in flat and highly accessible rural districts of northern Italy. The average ESAI score converged more rapidly in large districts in respect to smaller districts. A moderate convergence in LVD was observed in southern and central Italy during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 respectively. Based on our findings, spatial convergence in LVD is finally proposed as a key concept in the on-going and future assessment of land degradation in rural areas under (increasing) anthropogenic pressure. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.