Arid
DOI10.1007/s11069-016-2156-9
Design rainfall in Qatar: sensitivity to climate change scenarios
Al Mamoon, Abdullah1,3; Joergensen, Niels E.2; Rahman, Ataur3; Qasem, Hassan1
通讯作者Rahman, Ataur
来源期刊NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
EISSN1573-0840
出版年2016
卷号81期号:3页码:1797-1810
英文摘要

Design rainfall is needed in the design of numerous engineering infrastructures such as urban drainage systems, bridges, railways, metro systems, highways and flood levees. Design rainfall is derived using regional frequency analysis approach based on observed rainfall data from a large number of stations within a homogeneous region. This paper provides an assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on design rainfalls in Qatar. The future climate conditions are established based on AR4 and A2 categories of emission scenarios (SRES) specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Predicted 24-h annual maximum rainfall series for both the wet (NCAR-CCSM) and dry scenarios (CSIRO-MK3.5) for the Qatari grid points are extracted for three different periods, which are current (2000-2029), medium-term (2040-2069) and end-of-century climates (2080-2099). Using an L-moments-based index frequency approach, homogeneous regions are established and the best-fit distribution is then used to derive rainfall quantiles for average recurrence intervals (ARIs) of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The results show that there is no significant change in the design rainfalls in Qatar in the short term covering 2040-2069; however, a significant change is predicted at the end of century covering 2080-2099. Updated design rainfalls are estimated considering climate change scenarios for the period of 2080-2099 by averaging results from the wet and dry climate scenarios. The increase in 24-h annual maximum rainfall for the period 2080-2099 (compared with the current period 2000-2029) is found to be in the range of 68 and 76 % for 100-year ARI. For the typical design ARIs of 10-20 years, the increase in design rainfall is found to be in the range of 43 and 54 %. The method presented in this study can be applied to other arid regions, in particular to the Middle Eastern countries.


英文关键词Climate change Design rainfalls IDF Qatar Climate variability L-moments
类型Article
语种英语
国家Qatar ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000372285600019
WOS关键词EXTREME RAINFALL ; EASTERN AUSTRALIA ; TRENDS ; STATIONARITY ; TEMPERATURE ; STATISTICS ; DENMARK ; EVENTS ; CURVES ; FLOOD
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/195161
作者单位1.Minist Municipal & Urban Planning, Doha, Qatar;
2.COWI AS, Doha, Qatar;
3.Univ Western Sydney, Sch Comp Engn & Math, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Al Mamoon, Abdullah,Joergensen, Niels E.,Rahman, Ataur,et al. Design rainfall in Qatar: sensitivity to climate change scenarios[J],2016,81(3):1797-1810.
APA Al Mamoon, Abdullah,Joergensen, Niels E.,Rahman, Ataur,&Qasem, Hassan.(2016).Design rainfall in Qatar: sensitivity to climate change scenarios.NATURAL HAZARDS,81(3),1797-1810.
MLA Al Mamoon, Abdullah,et al."Design rainfall in Qatar: sensitivity to climate change scenarios".NATURAL HAZARDS 81.3(2016):1797-1810.
条目包含的文件 下载所有文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Design rainfall in Q(833KB)期刊论文出版稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SA浏览 下载
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Al Mamoon, Abdullah]的文章
[Joergensen, Niels E.]的文章
[Rahman, Ataur]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Al Mamoon, Abdullah]的文章
[Joergensen, Niels E.]的文章
[Rahman, Ataur]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Al Mamoon, Abdullah]的文章
[Joergensen, Niels E.]的文章
[Rahman, Ataur]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Design rainfall in Qatar sensitivity to climate change scenarios.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。