Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.2166/wcc.2016.045 |
Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods | |
Danesh, Azin Shahni1; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh1; Fahmi, Hedayat2; Nokhandan, Majid Habibi3; Eshraghi, Hadi1 | |
通讯作者 | Danesh, Azin Shahni |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 2040-2244 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 7期号:3页码:551-577 |
英文摘要 | As a result of inappropriate management and rising levels of societal demand, in arid and semi-arid regions water resources are becoming increasingly stressed. Therefore, well-established insight into the effects of climate change on water resource components can be considered to be an essential strategy to reduce these effects. In this paper, Iran’s climate change and variability, and the impact of climate change on water resources, were studied. Climate change was assessed by means of two Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) weather generators and all outputs from the available general circulation models in the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change-SCENario GENerator (MAGICC-SCENGEN) software, in combination with different emission scenarios at the regional scale, while the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model has been used for projections at the local scale. A hydrological model, the Runoff Assessment Model (RAM), was first utilized to simulate water resources for Iran. Then, using the MAGICC-SCENGEN model and the downscaled results as input for the RAM model, a prediction was made for changes in 30 basins and runoffs. Modeling results indicate temperature and precipitation changes in the range of +/- 6 degrees C and +/- 60%, respectively. Temperature rise increases evaporation and decreases runoff, but has been found to cause an increased rate of runoff in winter and a decrease in spring. |
英文关键词 | climate change LARS-WG MAGICC-SCENGEN PRECIS RAM water resources |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000383989000008 |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194880 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Climate Change Off, Dept Environm, 161 Int Projects BLDG,Pardisan ECO Pk, Tehran, Iran; 2.Univ Tehran, First Floor,28 Fatemi Alley,North Kargar Ave, Tehran, Iran; 3.Natl Ctr Climatol Unit 4, Climatol Res Inst, 13,Faramarz 12 Alley,Faramarz Abbasi Blvd, Mashhad, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Danesh, Azin Shahni,Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh,Fahmi, Hedayat,et al. Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods[J],2016,7(3):551-577. |
APA | Danesh, Azin Shahni,Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh,Fahmi, Hedayat,Nokhandan, Majid Habibi,&Eshraghi, Hadi.(2016).Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,7(3),551-577. |
MLA | Danesh, Azin Shahni,et al."Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 7.3(2016):551-577. |
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