Arid
DOI10.2166/wcc.2016.045
Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods
Danesh, Azin Shahni1; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh1; Fahmi, Hedayat2; Nokhandan, Majid Habibi3; Eshraghi, Hadi1
通讯作者Danesh, Azin Shahni
来源期刊JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN2040-2244
出版年2016
卷号7期号:3页码:551-577
英文摘要

As a result of inappropriate management and rising levels of societal demand, in arid and semi-arid regions water resources are becoming increasingly stressed. Therefore, well-established insight into the effects of climate change on water resource components can be considered to be an essential strategy to reduce these effects. In this paper, Iran’s climate change and variability, and the impact of climate change on water resources, were studied. Climate change was assessed by means of two Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) weather generators and all outputs from the available general circulation models in the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change-SCENario GENerator (MAGICC-SCENGEN) software, in combination with different emission scenarios at the regional scale, while the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model has been used for projections at the local scale. A hydrological model, the Runoff Assessment Model (RAM), was first utilized to simulate water resources for Iran. Then, using the MAGICC-SCENGEN model and the downscaled results as input for the RAM model, a prediction was made for changes in 30 basins and runoffs. Modeling results indicate temperature and precipitation changes in the range of +/- 6 degrees C and +/- 60%, respectively. Temperature rise increases evaporation and decreases runoff, but has been found to cause an increased rate of runoff in winter and a decrease in spring.


英文关键词climate change LARS-WG MAGICC-SCENGEN PRECIS RAM water resources
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000383989000008
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194880
作者单位1.Natl Climate Change Off, Dept Environm, 161 Int Projects BLDG,Pardisan ECO Pk, Tehran, Iran;
2.Univ Tehran, First Floor,28 Fatemi Alley,North Kargar Ave, Tehran, Iran;
3.Natl Ctr Climatol Unit 4, Climatol Res Inst, 13,Faramarz 12 Alley,Faramarz Abbasi Blvd, Mashhad, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Danesh, Azin Shahni,Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh,Fahmi, Hedayat,et al. Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods[J],2016,7(3):551-577.
APA Danesh, Azin Shahni,Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh,Fahmi, Hedayat,Nokhandan, Majid Habibi,&Eshraghi, Hadi.(2016).Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,7(3),551-577.
MLA Danesh, Azin Shahni,et al."Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 7.3(2016):551-577.
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