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DOI10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.02.033
Predicting catastrophic shifts
Weissmann, Haim; Shnerb, Nadav M.
通讯作者Weissmann, Haim
来源期刊JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
ISSN0022-5193
EISSN1095-8541
出版年2016
卷号397页码:128-134
英文摘要

Catastrophic shifts are known to pose a serious threat to ecology, and a reliable set of early warning indicators is desperately needed. However, the tools suggested so far have two problems. First, they cannot discriminate between a smooth transition and an imminent irreversible shift. Second, they aimed at predicting the tipping point where a state loses its stability, but in noisy spatial system the actual transition occurs when an alternative state invades. Here we suggest a cluster tracking technique that solves both problems, distinguishing between smooth and catastrophic transitions and to identify an imminent shift in both cases. Our method may allow for the prediction, and thus hopefully the prevention of such transitions, avoiding their destructive outcomes. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Early warning indicators Clusters tracking Positive feedback Negative feedback Regime shifts Stability of ecosystems Desertification Tipping points Bistability Continuous transition Discontinuous transition
类型Article
语种英语
国家Israel
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000375168300012
WOS关键词EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS ; SEMIARID GRAZING SYSTEMS ; PHASE-TRANSITIONS ; DESERTIFICATION ; RECOVERY ; ECOSYSTEMS ; ENVIRONMENTS ; FACILITATION ; COMPETITION ; PATTERNS
WOS类目Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS研究方向Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194843
作者单位Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Weissmann, Haim,Shnerb, Nadav M.. Predicting catastrophic shifts[J],2016,397:128-134.
APA Weissmann, Haim,&Shnerb, Nadav M..(2016).Predicting catastrophic shifts.JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY,397,128-134.
MLA Weissmann, Haim,et al."Predicting catastrophic shifts".JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 397(2016):128-134.
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