Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.02.033 |
Predicting catastrophic shifts | |
Weissmann, Haim; Shnerb, Nadav M. | |
通讯作者 | Weissmann, Haim |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 0022-5193 |
EISSN | 1095-8541 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 397页码:128-134 |
英文摘要 | Catastrophic shifts are known to pose a serious threat to ecology, and a reliable set of early warning indicators is desperately needed. However, the tools suggested so far have two problems. First, they cannot discriminate between a smooth transition and an imminent irreversible shift. Second, they aimed at predicting the tipping point where a state loses its stability, but in noisy spatial system the actual transition occurs when an alternative state invades. Here we suggest a cluster tracking technique that solves both problems, distinguishing between smooth and catastrophic transitions and to identify an imminent shift in both cases. Our method may allow for the prediction, and thus hopefully the prevention of such transitions, avoiding their destructive outcomes. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Early warning indicators Clusters tracking Positive feedback Negative feedback Regime shifts Stability of ecosystems Desertification Tipping points Bistability Continuous transition Discontinuous transition |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000375168300012 |
WOS关键词 | EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS ; SEMIARID GRAZING SYSTEMS ; PHASE-TRANSITIONS ; DESERTIFICATION ; RECOVERY ; ECOSYSTEMS ; ENVIRONMENTS ; FACILITATION ; COMPETITION ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
WOS研究方向 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194843 |
作者单位 | Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Weissmann, Haim,Shnerb, Nadav M.. Predicting catastrophic shifts[J],2016,397:128-134. |
APA | Weissmann, Haim,&Shnerb, Nadav M..(2016).Predicting catastrophic shifts.JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY,397,128-134. |
MLA | Weissmann, Haim,et al."Predicting catastrophic shifts".JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 397(2016):128-134. |
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