Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jksus.2015.09.004
Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem
Schoenecker, Kathryn A.1,2; Lubow, Bruce C.3
通讯作者Schoenecker, Kathryn A.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE
ISSN1018-3647
EISSN2213-686X
出版年2016
卷号28期号:3页码:205-215
英文摘要

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or "minimum counts" are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model M-H), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University.


英文关键词Aerial survey Arid climate Elk Great Sand Dunes National Park Mark-resight Population estimation
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000456301600002
WOS关键词AERIAL SURVEYS ; VISIBILITY BIAS ; SIGHTABILITY MODEL ; MARK
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构United States Geological Survey ; Colorado State University
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194587
作者单位1.US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, 2150 Ctr Ave,Bldg C, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA;
2.Colorado State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Sustainabil, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;
3.Colorado State Univ, Nat Resources Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Schoenecker, Kathryn A.,Lubow, Bruce C.. Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem[J]. United States Geological Survey, Colorado State University,2016,28(3):205-215.
APA Schoenecker, Kathryn A.,&Lubow, Bruce C..(2016).Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem.JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE,28(3),205-215.
MLA Schoenecker, Kathryn A.,et al."Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem".JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY SCIENCE 28.3(2016):205-215.
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