Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.054
Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China’s mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model
Miao, Qinghua1; Yang, Dawen1; Yang, Hanbo1; Li, Zhe2,3
通讯作者Yang, Dawen
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
EISSN1879-2707
出版年2016
卷号541页码:371-386
英文摘要

Flash flooding is one of the most common natural hazards in China, particularly in mountainous areas, and usually causes heavy damage and casualties. However, the forecasting of flash flooding in mountainous regions remains challenging because of the short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This paper aims to establish a strategy for flash flood warnings in mountainous ungauged catchments across humid, semi-humid and semi-arid regions of China. First, we implement a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) in four mountainous catchments with drainage areas that ranges from 493 to 1601 km(2). The results show that the GBHM can simulate flash floods appropriately in these four study catchments. We propose a method to determine the rainfall threshold for flood warning by using frequency analysis and binary classification based on long-term GBHM simulations that are forced by historical rainfall data to create a practically easy and straightforward approach for flash flood forecasting in ungauged mountainous catchments with drainage areas from tens to hundreds of square kilometers. The results show that the rainfall threshold value decreases significantly with increasing antecedent soil moisture in humid regions, while this value decreases slightly with increasing soil moisture in semi humid and semi-arid regions. We also find that accumulative rainfall over a certain time span (or rainfall over a long time span) is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings in humid regions because the runoff is dominated by excess saturation. However, the rainfall intensity (or rainfall over a short time span) is more suitable in semi-humid and semi-arid regions because excess infiltration dominates the runoff in these regions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the rainfall threshold and find that the proposed method produces reasonably accurate flash flood warnings in the study catchments. An evaluation of the performance at uncalibrated interior points in the four gauged catchments provides results that are indicative of the expected performance at ungauged locations. We also find that insufficient historical data lengths (13 years with a 5-year flood return period in this study) may introduce uncertainty in the estimation of the flood/rainfall threshold because of the small number of flood events that are used in binary classification. A data sample that contains enough flood events (10 events suggested in the present study) that exceed the threshold value is necessary to obtain acceptable results from binary classification. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Flash flood warning Distributed hydrological model Ungauged catchments Rainfall threshold Binary classification
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000386421200029
WOS关键词UNGAUGED LOCATIONS ; FORECAST SYSTEM ; UNITED-STATES ; PART II ; SOIL ; GUIDANCE ; RIVER ; PRECIPITATION ; PARAMETERS ; BASINS
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 ; 清华大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194535
作者单位1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, Stare Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Miao, Qinghua,Yang, Dawen,Yang, Hanbo,等. Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China’s mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 清华大学,2016,541:371-386.
APA Miao, Qinghua,Yang, Dawen,Yang, Hanbo,&Li, Zhe.(2016).Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China’s mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,541,371-386.
MLA Miao, Qinghua,et al."Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China’s mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 541(2016):371-386.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Miao, Qinghua]的文章
[Yang, Dawen]的文章
[Yang, Hanbo]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Miao, Qinghua]的文章
[Yang, Dawen]的文章
[Yang, Hanbo]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Miao, Qinghua]的文章
[Yang, Dawen]的文章
[Yang, Hanbo]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。