Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.038
Incorporating seasonality into event-based joint probability methods for predicting flood frequency: A hybrid causative event approach
Li, Jing1; Thyer, Mark1; Lambert, Martin1; Kuzera, George2; Metcalfe, Andrew3
通讯作者Thyer, Mark
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
EISSN1879-2707
出版年2016
卷号533页码:40-52
英文摘要

Flood extremes are driven by highly variable and complex climatic and hydrological processes. Observational evidence has identified that seasonality of climate variables has a major impact on flood peaks. However, event-based joint probability approaches for predicting the flood frequency distribution (FFD), which are commonly used in practice, do not commonly incorporate climate seasonality. This study presents an advance in event-based joint probability approaches by incorporating seasonality using the hybrid causative events (HCE) approach. The HCE was chosen because it uses the true causative events of the floods of interest and is able to combine the accuracy of continuous simulation with the computational efficiency of event-based approaches. The incorporation of seasonality is evaluated using a virtual catchment approach at eight sites over a wide range of Australian climate zones, including tropical, temperature, Mediterranean and desert climates (virtual catchment data for the eight sites is freely available via digital repository). The seasonal HCE provided accurate predictions of the FFD at all sites. In contrast, the non-seasonal HCE significantly over-predicted the FFD at some sites. The need to include seasonality was influenced by the magnitude of the seasonal variation in soil moisture and its coherence with the seasonal variation in extreme rainfall. For sites with a low seasonal variation in soil moisture the non-seasonal HCE provided reliable estimates of the FFD. For the remaining sites, it was found difficult to predict a priori whether ignoring seasonality provided a reliable estimate of the FFD, hence it is recommended that the seasonal HCE always be used. The practical implications of this study are that the HCE approach with seasonality is an accurate and efficient event-based joint probability approach to derive the flood frequency distribution across a wide range of climatologies. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.


英文关键词Derived flood distribution Seasonality Joint probability Rainfall-runoff process Flood frequency
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000370086200004
WOS关键词WATER-BALANCE ; TEMPORAL SCALES ; RAINFALL ; SIMULATION ; DESIGN ; MODEL ; QUEENSLAND ; CATCHMENTS ; AUSTRALIA ; FRAMEWORK
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/194506
作者单位1.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia;
2.Univ Newcastle, Sch Engn, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia;
3.Univ Adelaide, Sch Math Sci, Adelaide, SA, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Jing,Thyer, Mark,Lambert, Martin,et al. Incorporating seasonality into event-based joint probability methods for predicting flood frequency: A hybrid causative event approach[J],2016,533:40-52.
APA Li, Jing,Thyer, Mark,Lambert, Martin,Kuzera, George,&Metcalfe, Andrew.(2016).Incorporating seasonality into event-based joint probability methods for predicting flood frequency: A hybrid causative event approach.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,533,40-52.
MLA Li, Jing,et al."Incorporating seasonality into event-based joint probability methods for predicting flood frequency: A hybrid causative event approach".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 533(2016):40-52.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Li, Jing]的文章
[Thyer, Mark]的文章
[Lambert, Martin]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Li, Jing]的文章
[Thyer, Mark]的文章
[Lambert, Martin]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Li, Jing]的文章
[Thyer, Mark]的文章
[Lambert, Martin]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。