Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.4448
Inter- and Intra-annual precipitation variability and associated relationships to ENSO and the IOD in southern Africa
Gaughan, Andrea E.1; Staub, Caroline G.2,3; Hoell, Andrew4; Weaver, Ariel1; Waylen, Peter R.2
通讯作者Gaughan, Andrea E.
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2016
卷号36期号:4页码:1643-1656
英文摘要

Precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual scales may influence land-use management decisions in semi-arid savannas worldwide, and in particular, over the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) in southern Africa. Over KAZA, spatiotemporal precipitation variability forced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is important to local and regional-scale decisions for planting, livestock grazing, and wildlife migration patterns. We investigate the annual water year (October-September) and early rainy season [October-November-December (OND)] precipitation patterns during 60 years before and after a 1970s shift in the global ocean-atmosphere system for this region in southern Africa. The coincidence of the number of wet (upper tercile) and dry (lower tercile) years and OND seasons during the various phases of ENSO and IOD are compared prior to (1950-1975) and after (1980-2008) the 1970s climate shift over KAZA. Since the 1970s climate shift, KAZA has been significantly drier and observed fewer wet years and OND seasons. ENSO is the dominant forcing of precipitation differences over southern Africa before and after the 1970s climate shift, with IOD playing a secondary role. However, when ENSO and IOD phases are analysed simultaneously, El Nino and positive IOD events are significantly related to dry periods. The forcing of atmospheric circulation over southern Africa before and after the 1970s climate shift during El Nino and La Nina events is significantly different. Prior to the 1970s climate shift, atmospheric circulation during El Nino (La Nina) favoured strong (weak) precipitation increases (decreases). Afterward the 1970s climate shift, atmospheric circulation during La Nina (El Nino) favoured strong (weak) precipitation decreases (increases). The shifting nature of climate modes, especially ENSO, and respective influence on rainfall variability for southern Africa is important to understand to better inform seasonal climate forecasts to improve operational decision-making for land-use and water management decisions in semi-arid savanna regions.


英文关键词precipitation ENSO IOD southern Africa climate variability semi-arid savannas 1970s climate shift
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000372036800006
WOS关键词INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; LA-NINA ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; TROPICAL ATLANTIC ; NORTH PACIFIC ; WARM EVENTS ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193704
作者单位1.Univ Louisville, Dept Geog & Geosci, 213 Lutz Hall, Louisville, KY 40292 USA;
2.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA;
3.Univ Florida, Land Use Environm Change Inst LUECI, Gainesville, FL USA;
4.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
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GB/T 7714
Gaughan, Andrea E.,Staub, Caroline G.,Hoell, Andrew,et al. Inter- and Intra-annual precipitation variability and associated relationships to ENSO and the IOD in southern Africa[J],2016,36(4):1643-1656.
APA Gaughan, Andrea E.,Staub, Caroline G.,Hoell, Andrew,Weaver, Ariel,&Waylen, Peter R..(2016).Inter- and Intra-annual precipitation variability and associated relationships to ENSO and the IOD in southern Africa.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,36(4),1643-1656.
MLA Gaughan, Andrea E.,et al."Inter- and Intra-annual precipitation variability and associated relationships to ENSO and the IOD in southern Africa".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 36.4(2016):1643-1656.
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