Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.4368
Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel
Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita1; Kunin, Pavel2,3; Hopson, Thomas M.4; Liu, Yubao4; Givati, Amir5
通讯作者Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2016
卷号36期号:2页码:590-606
英文摘要

Careful planning of the use of water resources is critical in the semi-arid eastern Mediterranean region. The relevant areas are characterized by complex terrain and coastlines, and exhibit large spatial variability in seasonal precipitation. Global seasonal forecasts provide only partial information of the precipitation as a result of their coarse spatial resolution. We present two statistical downscaling methods of global forecasts, both identifying past-analogue synoptic-weather patterns and their connection to precipitation at specific stations. The first method utilizes a classification of the large-scale weather patterns into regimes, and the other identifies the closest past analogues directly without grouping the weather events. The validation of the algorithms using NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and past precipitation observations at 18 stations shows that both methods provide good skill in predicting mean precipitation amounts and quantiles of the precipitation distribution, and in reproducing the observed inter-annual and spatial variability. Both methods show good correlations between predicted and observed precipitation amounts (approximate to 0.8), and the downscaled precipitation reproduces the observed differences between the stations, which are not available in the coarse global models. Based on these results, we downscaled the operational global-seasonal forecasts issued by the NCEP CFS1.0 ensemble. This approach could also have utility in climate change scenario downscaling.


英文关键词statistical downscaling analogues seasonal precipitation cyclones weather regimes verification CFS
类型Article
语种英语
国家Israel ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000369991700005
WOS关键词FORECAST SYSTEM ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; CYCLONES ; RIVER
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193696
作者单位1.Israel Inst Biol Res, Dept Appl Math, POB 19, IL-74100 Ness Ziona, Israel;
2.Life Sci Res Israel, Ness Ziona, Israel;
3.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Geophys & Planetary Sci, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;
4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
5.Israel Water Author, Israel Hydrol Serv, Jerusalem, Israel
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,Hopson, Thomas M.,et al. Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel[J],2016,36(2):590-606.
APA Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,Hopson, Thomas M.,Liu, Yubao,&Givati, Amir.(2016).Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,36(2),590-606.
MLA Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,et al."Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 36.2(2016):590-606.
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