Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4368 |
Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel | |
Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita1; Kunin, Pavel2,3; Hopson, Thomas M.4; Liu, Yubao4; Givati, Amir5 | |
通讯作者 | Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita |
来源期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 36期号:2页码:590-606 |
英文摘要 | Careful planning of the use of water resources is critical in the semi-arid eastern Mediterranean region. The relevant areas are characterized by complex terrain and coastlines, and exhibit large spatial variability in seasonal precipitation. Global seasonal forecasts provide only partial information of the precipitation as a result of their coarse spatial resolution. We present two statistical downscaling methods of global forecasts, both identifying past-analogue synoptic-weather patterns and their connection to precipitation at specific stations. The first method utilizes a classification of the large-scale weather patterns into regimes, and the other identifies the closest past analogues directly without grouping the weather events. The validation of the algorithms using NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and past precipitation observations at 18 stations shows that both methods provide good skill in predicting mean precipitation amounts and quantiles of the precipitation distribution, and in reproducing the observed inter-annual and spatial variability. Both methods show good correlations between predicted and observed precipitation amounts (approximate to 0.8), and the downscaled precipitation reproduces the observed differences between the stations, which are not available in the coarse global models. Based on these results, we downscaled the operational global-seasonal forecasts issued by the NCEP CFS1.0 ensemble. This approach could also have utility in climate change scenario downscaling. |
英文关键词 | statistical downscaling analogues seasonal precipitation cyclones weather regimes verification CFS |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel ; USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000369991700005 |
WOS关键词 | FORECAST SYSTEM ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; CYCLONES ; RIVER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193696 |
作者单位 | 1.Israel Inst Biol Res, Dept Appl Math, POB 19, IL-74100 Ness Ziona, Israel; 2.Life Sci Res Israel, Ness Ziona, Israel; 3.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Geophys & Planetary Sci, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 5.Israel Water Author, Israel Hydrol Serv, Jerusalem, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,Hopson, Thomas M.,et al. Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel[J],2016,36(2):590-606. |
APA | Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,Kunin, Pavel,Hopson, Thomas M.,Liu, Yubao,&Givati, Amir.(2016).Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,36(2),590-606. |
MLA | Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,et al."Statistical downscaling of seasonal precipitation in Israel".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 36.2(2016):590-606. |
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