Arid
DOI10.1080/10807039.2015.1138090
Climate change risks for net primary production of ecosystems in China
Shi, Xiaoli1,2,3; Zhao, Dongsheng2; Wu, Shaohong2; Shi, Wenjiao2; Dai, Erfu2; Wang, Wei1,3
通讯作者Wu, Shaohong
来源期刊HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1080-7039
EISSN1549-7860
出版年2016
卷号22期号:4页码:1091-1105
英文摘要

Few studies have investigated ecosystem risk under climate change from the perspective of critical thresholds. We presented a framework to assess the climate change risk on ecosystems based on the definition of critical thresholds. Combined with climate scenario, vegetation, and soil data, the Atmosphere Vegetation Interaction Model version 2 was used to simulate net primary productivity in the period of 1961-2080. The thresholds of dangerous and unacceptable impacts were then defined, and climate change risks on ecosystems in China were assessed. Results showed that risk areas will be closely associated with future climate change and will mainly occur in the southwest and northwest areas, Inner Mongolia, the southern part of the northeast areas, and South China. The risk regions will expand to 343.66Mha in the long term (2051-2080), accounting for 35.80% of China. The risk levels on all ecosystems (eco-regions) are likely to increase continually. The ecosystems of wooded savanna, temperate grassland, and desert grassland, which typically exhibit strong water stress, will have the maximum risk indices in the future. The Northwest Region is likely to be the most vulnerable because of precipitation restrictions and obvious warming. By contrast, Qinghai-Tibet Region will not be so vulnerable to future climate change.


英文关键词risk dangerous impact unacceptable impact net primary production climate change
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000374692200016
WOS关键词FOREST ; SOIL ; AGRICULTURE ; PROJECTIONS ; GRASSLANDS ; SAVANNA ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; CO2
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193401
作者单位1.Hebei Normal Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11 Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
3.Key Lab Environm Evolvement & Ecol Construct Hebe, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Shi, Xiaoli,Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong,et al. Climate change risks for net primary production of ecosystems in China[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2016,22(4):1091-1105.
APA Shi, Xiaoli,Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong,Shi, Wenjiao,Dai, Erfu,&Wang, Wei.(2016).Climate change risks for net primary production of ecosystems in China.HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT,22(4),1091-1105.
MLA Shi, Xiaoli,et al."Climate change risks for net primary production of ecosystems in China".HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT 22.4(2016):1091-1105.
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