Arid
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.011
Temporal clustering of floods and impacts of climate indices in the Tarim River basin, China
Gu, Xihui1; Zhang, Qiang2,3,4; Singh, Vijay P.5,6; Chen, Yongqin David7,8; Shi, Peijun2,3,4
通讯作者Zhang, Qiang
来源期刊GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
EISSN1872-6364
出版年2016
卷号147页码:12-24
英文摘要

The occurrence rates of floods in Tarim River basin, the largest arid basin in China, were estimated using the Peak over -Threshold (POT) technique. The intra-annual, seasonal and inter-annual clustering of floods was then analyzed using the Cox regression model, month frequency method and dispersion index, respectively. Possible impacts of climate indices on the occurrence rates were also investigated. Both NAO and AO are selected as significant covariates to occurrence rates of floods in Tarim River basin by Cox regression model, suggesting occurrence of flood events is not independent, but exhibits temporal clustering in intra-annual scale. On the basis of the results of the station and region-wide modeling by Cox regression model, we suggest using a model in which therate of occurrence depends on monthly averaged NAO or AO. The Cox regression model not only can be used to assess the time-varying rate of flood occurrence, but also has the capability to forecast the predictors. Flood occurrence time and probability of exceedance are changing with climate index from negative to positive on both station and region scale. In addition, seasonal clustering of station-based floods and regional observed floods are also identified with mainly concentrating from June to August. Meanwhile, dispersion index is used to evaluate the inter-annual clustering of annual number of flood occurrences both on station and region. We found that inter-annual clustering of regional floods is more evident than that of station-based floods, indicating that regional observed flood records are generally over-dispersed with a tendency for flood events to cluster in time. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Cox regression model Dispersion index Clustering of floods POT-based sampling technique Tarim River basin
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000390518500002
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; EL-NINO ; NORTHERN XINJIANG ; PRECIPITATION ; FREQUENCY ; EVENTS
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
来源机构北京师范大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193318
作者单位1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
3.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
4.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA;
6.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX USA;
7.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China;
8.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gu, Xihui,Zhang, Qiang,Singh, Vijay P.,et al. Temporal clustering of floods and impacts of climate indices in the Tarim River basin, China[J]. 北京师范大学,2016,147:12-24.
APA Gu, Xihui,Zhang, Qiang,Singh, Vijay P.,Chen, Yongqin David,&Shi, Peijun.(2016).Temporal clustering of floods and impacts of climate indices in the Tarim River basin, China.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,147,12-24.
MLA Gu, Xihui,et al."Temporal clustering of floods and impacts of climate indices in the Tarim River basin, China".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 147(2016):12-24.
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