Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.018 |
Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management | |
Hartmann, Heike1; Snow, Julie A.1; Su, Buda2,3; Jiang, Tong2 | |
通讯作者 | Hartmann, Heike |
来源期刊 | GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
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ISSN | 0921-8181 |
EISSN | 1872-6364 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 147页码:86-96 |
英文摘要 | Since the 1950s, the population in the arid to hyperarid Tarim River basin has grown rapidly concurrent with an expansion of irrigated agriculture. This threatens the Tarim River basin’s natural ecosystems and causes water shortages, even though increased discharges in the headwaters have been observed more recently. These increases have mainly been attributed to receding glaciers and are projected to cease when the glaciers are unable to provide sufficient amounts of meltwater. Under these circumstances water management will face a serious challenge in adapting its strategies to changes in river discharge, which to a greater extent will depend on changes in precipitation. In this paper, we aim to develop accurate seasonal predictions of precipitation to improve water resources management. Possible predictors of precipitation for the Tarim River basin were either downloaded directly or calculated using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V3b data in monthly resolution. To evaluate the significance of the predictors, they were then correlated with the monthly precipitation dataset GPCCv6 extracted for the Tarim River basin for the period 1961 to 2010. Prior to the Spearman rank correlation analyses, the precipitation data were averaged over the subbasins of the Tarim River. The strongest correlations were mainly detected with lead times of four and five months. Finally, an artificial neural network model, namely a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a multiple linear regression (LR) model were developed each in two different configurations for the Aksu River subbasin, predicting precipitation five months in advance. Overall, the MLP using all predictors shows the best performance. The performance of both models drops only slightly when restricting the model input to the SST of the Black Sea and the Siberian High Intensity (SHI) pointing towards their importance as predictors. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation Seasonal predictions Artificial neural networks Water resources Tarim River basin |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; Peoples R China |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000390518500007 |
WOS关键词 | ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; CLIMATE ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; XINJIANG ; MONSOON ; RUNOFF ; LAND |
WOS类目 | Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography ; Geology |
来源机构 | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/193317 |
作者单位 | 1.Slippery Rock Univ, Dept Geog Geol & Environm, Slippery Rock, PA 16057 USA; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hartmann, Heike,Snow, Julie A.,Su, Buda,et al. Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2016,147:86-96. |
APA | Hartmann, Heike,Snow, Julie A.,Su, Buda,&Jiang, Tong.(2016).Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,147,86-96. |
MLA | Hartmann, Heike,et al."Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 147(2016):86-96. |
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