Arid
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014
The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis
Trigg, M. A.1,2; Birch, C. E.3; Neal, J. C.2,4; Bates, P. D.2,4; Smith, A.2,4; Sampson, C. C.2,4; Yamazaki, D.5; Hirabayashi, Y.6; Pappenberger, F.7; Dutra, E.7; Ward, P. J.8; Winsemius, H. C.9; Salamon, P.10; Dottori, F.10; Rudari, R.11; Kappes, M. S.12; Simpson, A. L.13; Hadzilacos, G.14; Fewtrell, T. J.14
通讯作者Trigg, M. A.
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2016
卷号11期号:9
英文摘要

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.


英文关键词global flood models flood hazard flood risk
类型Article
语种英语
国家England ; Wales ; Japan ; Netherlands ; Italy ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000385393100002
WOS关键词MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FRAMEWORK ; DRIVERS ; SCALE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192794
作者单位1.Univ Leeds, Sch Civil Engn, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England;
2.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England;
3.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England;
4.SSBN Flood Risk Solut, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, S Glam, Wales;
5.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Integrated Climate Change Project Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan;
6.Univ Tokyo, Inst Engn Innovat, Bunkyo Ku, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Tokyo 1138656, Japan;
7.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England;
8.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands;
9.Deltares, NL-2629 HV Delft, Netherlands;
10.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, Italy;
11.CIMA Res Fdn, I-17100 Savona, Italy;
12.World Bank Grp, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA;
13.World Bank Grp, Global Facil Disaster Reduct & Recovery, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA;
14.Willis Re, London EC3M 7DQ, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Trigg, M. A.,Birch, C. E.,Neal, J. C.,et al. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis[J],2016,11(9).
APA Trigg, M. A..,Birch, C. E..,Neal, J. C..,Bates, P. D..,Smith, A..,...&Fewtrell, T. J..(2016).The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,11(9).
MLA Trigg, M. A.,et al."The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 11.9(2016).
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