Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014 |
The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis | |
Trigg, M. A.1,2; Birch, C. E.3; Neal, J. C.2,4; Bates, P. D.2,4; Smith, A.2,4; Sampson, C. C.2,4; Yamazaki, D.5; Hirabayashi, Y.6; Pappenberger, F.7; Dutra, E.7; Ward, P. J.8; Winsemius, H. C.9; Salamon, P.10; Dottori, F.10; Rudari, R.11; Kappes, M. S.12; Simpson, A. L.13; Hadzilacos, G.14; Fewtrell, T. J.14 | |
通讯作者 | Trigg, M. A. |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 11期号:9 |
英文摘要 | Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections. |
英文关键词 | global flood models flood hazard flood risk |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England ; Wales ; Japan ; Netherlands ; Italy ; USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000385393100002 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FRAMEWORK ; DRIVERS ; SCALE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192794 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Leeds, Sch Civil Engn, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 2.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England; 3.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 4.SSBN Flood Risk Solut, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, S Glam, Wales; 5.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Integrated Climate Change Project Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan; 6.Univ Tokyo, Inst Engn Innovat, Bunkyo Ku, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Tokyo 1138656, Japan; 7.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England; 8.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 9.Deltares, NL-2629 HV Delft, Netherlands; 10.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, Italy; 11.CIMA Res Fdn, I-17100 Savona, Italy; 12.World Bank Grp, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA; 13.World Bank Grp, Global Facil Disaster Reduct & Recovery, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA; 14.Willis Re, London EC3M 7DQ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Trigg, M. A.,Birch, C. E.,Neal, J. C.,et al. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis[J],2016,11(9). |
APA | Trigg, M. A..,Birch, C. E..,Neal, J. C..,Bates, P. D..,Smith, A..,...&Fewtrell, T. J..(2016).The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,11(9). |
MLA | Trigg, M. A.,et al."The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 11.9(2016). |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
The credibility chal(3743KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。