Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s10661-016-5532-8 |
Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks | |
Bashari, Hossein1; Naghipour, Ali Asghar2; Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin1; Sangoony, Hamed1; Tahmasebi, Pejman2 | |
通讯作者 | Bashari, Hossein |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
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ISSN | 0167-6369 |
EISSN | 1573-2959 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 188期号:9 |
英文摘要 | Identifying areas that have a high risk of burning is a main component of fire management planning. Although the available tools can predict the fire risks, these are poor in accommodating uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we accommodated uncertainty in wildfire prediction using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). An influence diagram was developed to identify the factors influencing wildfire in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran, and it was populated with probabilities to produce a BBNs model. The behavior of the model was tested using scenario and sensitivity analysis. Land cover/use, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, elevation, and livestock density were recognized as the main variables determining wildfire occurrence. The produced model had good accuracy as its ROC area under the curve was 0.986. The model could be applied in both predictive and diagnostic analysis for answering "what if" and "how" questions. The probabilistic relationships within the model can be updated over time using observation and monitoring data. The wildfire BBN model may be updated as new knowledge emerges; hence, it can be used to support the process of adaptive management. |
英文关键词 | Arid and semi-arid ecosystems Prediction Diagnostic Bayesian belief network Uncertainty |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000383128100034 |
WOS关键词 | INFLUENCING WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; AIR-POLLUTION ; IGNITION RISK ; MODEL ; PROBABILITY ; FOREST ; ECOLOGY ; GIS ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192764 |
作者单位 | 1.Isfahan Univ Technol, Dept Nat Resources, Esfahan 8415683111, Iran; 2.Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Shahrekord 8818634141, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bashari, Hossein,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin,et al. Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks[J],2016,188(9). |
APA | Bashari, Hossein,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin,Sangoony, Hamed,&Tahmasebi, Pejman.(2016).Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,188(9). |
MLA | Bashari, Hossein,et al."Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 188.9(2016). |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Risk of fire occurre(1970KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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