Arid
DOI10.1007/s10661-016-5532-8
Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks
Bashari, Hossein1; Naghipour, Ali Asghar2; Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin1; Sangoony, Hamed1; Tahmasebi, Pejman2
通讯作者Bashari, Hossein
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN0167-6369
EISSN1573-2959
出版年2016
卷号188期号:9
英文摘要

Identifying areas that have a high risk of burning is a main component of fire management planning. Although the available tools can predict the fire risks, these are poor in accommodating uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we accommodated uncertainty in wildfire prediction using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). An influence diagram was developed to identify the factors influencing wildfire in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran, and it was populated with probabilities to produce a BBNs model. The behavior of the model was tested using scenario and sensitivity analysis. Land cover/use, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, elevation, and livestock density were recognized as the main variables determining wildfire occurrence. The produced model had good accuracy as its ROC area under the curve was 0.986. The model could be applied in both predictive and diagnostic analysis for answering "what if" and "how" questions. The probabilistic relationships within the model can be updated over time using observation and monitoring data. The wildfire BBN model may be updated as new knowledge emerges; hence, it can be used to support the process of adaptive management.


英文关键词Arid and semi-arid ecosystems Prediction Diagnostic Bayesian belief network Uncertainty
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000383128100034
WOS关键词INFLUENCING WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; AIR-POLLUTION ; IGNITION RISK ; MODEL ; PROBABILITY ; FOREST ; ECOLOGY ; GIS ; PREDICTION
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192764
作者单位1.Isfahan Univ Technol, Dept Nat Resources, Esfahan 8415683111, Iran;
2.Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Shahrekord 8818634141, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bashari, Hossein,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin,et al. Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks[J],2016,188(9).
APA Bashari, Hossein,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin,Sangoony, Hamed,&Tahmasebi, Pejman.(2016).Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,188(9).
MLA Bashari, Hossein,et al."Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 188.9(2016).
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Risk of fire occurre(1970KB)期刊论文出版稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Bashari, Hossein]的文章
[Naghipour, Ali Asghar]的文章
[Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Bashari, Hossein]的文章
[Naghipour, Ali Asghar]的文章
[Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Bashari, Hossein]的文章
[Naghipour, Ali Asghar]的文章
[Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。