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DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.006
A spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach for the spread of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in central Iran, Isfahan
Rajabi, Mohammadreza1; Pilesjo, Petter1; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza2; Fadaei, Reza3; Mansourian, Ali1
通讯作者Rajabi, Mohammadreza
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
ISSN1364-8152
EISSN1873-6726
出版年2016
卷号82页码:330-346
英文摘要

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic vector-borne disease in the Middle East and a worldwide public health problem. The spread of CL is highly associated with the socio-ecological interactions of vectors, hosts and the environment. The heterogeneity of these interactions has hindered CL modeling for healthcare preventive measures in endemic areas. In this study, an agent-based model (ABM) is developed to simulate the dynamics of CL spread based on a Geographic Automata System (GAS). A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) approach together with Bayesian modeling has been applied in the ABM to explore the spread of CL. The model is then adapted locally for Isfahan Province, an endemic area in central Iran. The results from the model indicate that desertification areas are the main origin of CL, and riverside population centers have the potential to host more sand fly exposures and should receive more preventive measures from healthcare authorities. The results also show that healthcare service accessibility prevented exposures from becoming infected and areas with new inhabitants experienced more infections from same amount of sand fly exposures. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Agent-based model Disease modeling Socio-ecological interactions
类型Article
语种英语
国家Sweden ; Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000378954000024
WOS关键词SAND FLIES DIPTERA ; VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES ; ENVIRONMENTAL-FACTORS ; RISK ; PSYCHODIDAE ; FOCUS ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; DYNAMICS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192742
作者单位1.Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, GIS Ctr, Lund, Sweden;
2.Minist Hlth, Ctr Communicable Dis Control, Zoonoses Control Dept, Tehran, Iran;
3.Isfahan Univ Med Sci, Infect Dis & Trop Med Res Ctr, Esfahan, Iran
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GB/T 7714
Rajabi, Mohammadreza,Pilesjo, Petter,Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza,et al. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach for the spread of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in central Iran, Isfahan[J],2016,82:330-346.
APA Rajabi, Mohammadreza,Pilesjo, Petter,Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza,Fadaei, Reza,&Mansourian, Ali.(2016).A spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach for the spread of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in central Iran, Isfahan.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,82,330-346.
MLA Rajabi, Mohammadreza,et al."A spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach for the spread of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis disease in central Iran, Isfahan".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 82(2016):330-346.
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