Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1890/15-1526.1 |
Quantifying demographic uncertainty: Bayesian methods for integral projection models | |
Elderd, Bret D.1; Miller, Tom E. X.2 | |
通讯作者 | Elderd, Bret D. |
来源期刊 | ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
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ISSN | 0012-9615 |
EISSN | 1557-7015 |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 86期号:1页码:125-144 |
英文摘要 | Integral projection models (IPMs) are a powerful and popular approach to modeling population dynamics. Generalized linear models form the statistical backbone of an IPM. These models are typically fit using a frequentist approach. We suggest that hierarchical Bayesian statistical approaches offer important advantages over frequentist methods for building and interpreting IPMs, especially given the hierarchical nature of most demographic studies. Using a stochastic IPM for a desert cactus based on a 10-year study as a worked example, we highlight the application of a Bayesian approach for translating uncertainty in the vital rates (e.g., growth, survival, fertility) to uncertainty in population-level quantities derived from them (e.g., population growth rate). The best fit demographic model, which would have been difficult to fit under a frequentist framework, allowed for spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and correlated responses to temporal variation across vital rates. The corresponding posterior probability distribution for the stochastic population growth rate (lambda(S)) indicated that, if current vital rates continue, the study population will decline with nearly 100% probability. Interestingly, less supported candidate models that did not include spatial variance and vital rate correlations gave similar estimates of lambda(S). This occurred because the best fitting model did a much better job of fitting vital rates to which the population growth rate was weakly sensitive. The cactus case study highlights several advantages of Bayesian approaches to IPM modeling, including that they: (1) provide a natural fit to demographic data, which are often collected in a hierarchical fashion (e.g., with random variance corresponding to temporal and spatial heterogeneity); (2) seamlessly combine multiple data sets or experiments; (3) readily incorporate covariance between vital rates; and, (4) easily integrate prior information, which may be particularly important for species of conservation concern where data availability may be limited. However, constructing a Bayesian IPM will often require the custom development of a statistical model tailored to the peculiarities of the sampling design and species considered; there may be circumstances under which simpler methods are adequate. Overall, Bayesian approaches provide a statistically sound way to get more information out of hard-won data, the goal of most demographic research endeavors. |
英文关键词 | demography hierarchical Bayes IPMs Markov Chain Monte Carlo model selection parameter estimation population dynamics process error stochasticity uncertainty |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000371767700009 |
WOS关键词 | LINEAR MIXED MODELS ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; LIFE-HISTORY ; EVOLUTIONARY DEMOGRAPHY ; PRIOR DISTRIBUTIONS ; SIZE DEMOGRAPHY ; PRACTICAL GUIDE ; CATEGORY SIZE ; VITAL-RATES ; ECOLOGY |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192440 |
作者单位 | 1.Louisiana State Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA; 2.Rice Univ, Dept BioSci, Program Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Houston, TX 77005 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elderd, Bret D.,Miller, Tom E. X.. Quantifying demographic uncertainty: Bayesian methods for integral projection models[J],2016,86(1):125-144. |
APA | Elderd, Bret D.,&Miller, Tom E. X..(2016).Quantifying demographic uncertainty: Bayesian methods for integral projection models.ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS,86(1),125-144. |
MLA | Elderd, Bret D.,et al."Quantifying demographic uncertainty: Bayesian methods for integral projection models".ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS 86.1(2016):125-144. |
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