Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1111/conl.12202 |
Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink | |
Cadenhead, Natasha C. R.1; Kearney, Michael R.2; Moore, Danae3,4; McAlpin, Steve5; Wintle, Brendan A.1 | |
通讯作者 | Cadenhead, Natasha C. R. |
来源期刊 | CONSERVATION LETTERS
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ISSN | 1755-263X |
出版年 | 2016 |
卷号 | 9期号:3页码:181-190 |
英文摘要 | Fire regimes are predicted to change under climate change, with associated impacts on species and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and direction of regime changes are uncertain, as will be species’ responses. For many species, how they respond will determine their medium-long-term viability. We propagate fire regime and species’ response uncertainties through a 50-year viability analysis of the great desert skink, Liopholis kintorei, in central Australia, characterizing fire regime change under three scenarios. Species’ response uncertainty was characterized with three competing models based on fire and habitat variables, fitted to 11 years of occupancy data. We evaluate fire management options for conserving the species, based on their robustness to uncertainty about fire and species’ response. Efforts to minimize the frequency and size of fires provides the most consistent improvements to species’ persistence. We show that disentangling important from unimportant uncertainties enables conservation managers to make more efficient, defensible decisions. |
英文关键词 | Arid Australia decision-making dynamics fire fire management landscape ecology lizard population modelling species distribution modelling |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000378940700004 |
WOS关键词 | POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; MANAGEMENT ; AUSTRALIA ; EVOLUTION ; THREAT |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192161 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Quantitat & Appl Ecol Lab, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 2.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 3.Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2113, Australia; 4.Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Newhaven Via, Alice Springs, NT 0872, Australia; 5.Univ New England, Sch Environm & Rural Sci, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cadenhead, Natasha C. R.,Kearney, Michael R.,Moore, Danae,et al. Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink[J],2016,9(3):181-190. |
APA | Cadenhead, Natasha C. R.,Kearney, Michael R.,Moore, Danae,McAlpin, Steve,&Wintle, Brendan A..(2016).Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink.CONSERVATION LETTERS,9(3),181-190. |
MLA | Cadenhead, Natasha C. R.,et al."Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink".CONSERVATION LETTERS 9.3(2016):181-190. |
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