Arid
DOI10.1007/s10584-016-1619-z
Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties
Lacressonniere, Gwendoline1,7,8; Foret, Gilles1; Beekmann, Matthias1; Siour, Guillaume1; Engardt, Magnuz2; Gauss, Michael3; Watson, Laura4,5; Andersson, Camilla2; Colette, Augustin6; Josse, Beatrice4,5; Marecal, Virginie4,5; Nyiri, Agnes3; Vautard, Robert7
通讯作者Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2016
卷号136期号:2页码:309-324
英文摘要

A 2-degree global warming is likely to affect the production, deposition, and transport of air pollutants, leading to impacts on air quality and health. In the present study we use an ensemble of four regional chemistry-transport models, driven by meteorological data from different climate models, to assess such changes and their uncertainties for PM2.5 and SOMO35. Changes and uncertainties are compared to the inter-model variability. We find that the impact of regional climate change on PM2.5, averaged over the model ensemble, ranges from -0.5 mu g.m(-3) to +1.3 mu g.m(-3) over Europe. It mainly results from changes in natural and biogenic emissions, such as desert dust, sea salt and biogenic VOCs. Statistically significant decreases in PM2.5 are found over southwestern Russia and Ukraine as well as an increase over Southern Spain. Modeled changes in summer ozone levels range from -1.7 to 1.6 ppbv. We find a smaller ensemble-mean evolution of SOMO35 as compared to inter-model variability. We also investigate the uncertainty due to inter-decadal variability and find that 10-year periods may not be sufficient to allow the detection of statistically significant change signals.


类型Article
语种英语
国家France ; Sweden ; Norway
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000375683200011
WOS关键词PARTICULATE MATTER ; MODEL EVALUATION ; TRANSPORT MODEL ; NORTH-AMERICA ; EURO-CORDEX ; SIMULATIONS ; OZONE ; CHEMISTRY ; CHIMERE ; CONTEXT
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192102
作者单位1.CNRS INSU, IPSL LISA, Creteil, France;
2.SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden;
3.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, EMEP MSC W, Oslo, Norway;
4.Meteo France, CNRM GAME, Toulouse, France;
5.CNRS, Toulouse, France;
6.INERIS, Verneuil En Halatte, France;
7.CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France;
8.ARIA Technol, Boulogne, France
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lacressonniere, Gwendoline,Foret, Gilles,Beekmann, Matthias,et al. Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties[J],2016,136(2):309-324.
APA Lacressonniere, Gwendoline.,Foret, Gilles.,Beekmann, Matthias.,Siour, Guillaume.,Engardt, Magnuz.,...&Vautard, Robert.(2016).Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties.CLIMATIC CHANGE,136(2),309-324.
MLA Lacressonniere, Gwendoline,et al."Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties".CLIMATIC CHANGE 136.2(2016):309-324.
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