Arid
DOI10.1007/s00382-015-2831-7
Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method
Zhuang, X. W.1; Li, Y. P.1,2; Huang, G. H.1,2; Liu, J.1
通讯作者Li, Y. P.
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2016
卷号47期号:1-2页码:191-209
英文摘要

An integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis (MGCM-SWG-SCA) method is developed, through incorporating multiple global climate models (MGCM), stochastic weather generator (SWG), and stepwise-clustered hydrological model (SCHM) within a general framework. MGCM-SWG-SCA can investigate uncertainties of projected climate changes as well as create watershed-scale climate projections from large-scale variables. It can also assess climate change impacts on hydrological processes and capture nonlinear relationship between input variables and outputs in watershed systems. MGCM-SWG-SCA is then applied to the Kaidu watershed with cold-arid characteristics in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China, for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that the variability of streamflow is mainly affected by (1) temperature change during spring, (2) precipitation change during winter, and (3) both temperature and precipitation changes in summer and autumn. Results also disclose that: (1) the projected minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from MGCM change with seasons in different ways; (2) various climate change projections can reproduce the seasonal variability of watershed-scale climate series; (3) SCHM can simulate daily streamflow with a satisfactory degree, and a significant increasing trend of streamflow is indicated from future (2015-2035) to validation (2006-2011) periods; (4) the streamflow can vary under different climate change projections. The findings can be explained that, for the Kaidu watershed located in the cold-arid region, glacier melt is mainly related to temperature changes and precipitation changes can directly cause the variability of streamflow.


英文关键词Climate change Cold-arid Multi-GCM Stochastic weather generator Stepwise cluster analysis Watershed
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; Canada
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000381227100013
WOS关键词KAIDU RIVER-BASIN ; SNOWMELT RUNOFF ; CHINA ; SIMULATION ; MODELS ; SYSTEM ; XINJIANG ; CYCLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/192085
作者单位1.North China Elect Power Univ, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy & Environm Syst Optimizat, Sino Canada Resources & Environm Res Acad, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Regina, Environm Syst Engn Program, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhuang, X. W.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.,et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method[J],2016,47(1-2):191-209.
APA Zhuang, X. W.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.,&Liu, J..(2016).Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,47(1-2),191-209.
MLA Zhuang, X. W.,et al."Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 47.1-2(2016):191-209.
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