Arid
DOI10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison
Huneeus, N.1,2,3; Basart, S.4; Fiedler, S.5,6,19; Morcrette, J. -J.7; Benedetti, A.7; Mulcahy, J.8; Terradellas, E.9; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez10,11; Pejanovic, G.12; Nickovic, S.12,13; Arsenovic, P.12,14; Schulz, M.15; Cuevas, E.16; Baldasano, J. M.4,17; Pey, J.13,18; Remy, S.20; Cvetkovic, B.12
通讯作者Huneeus, N.
来源期刊ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
ISSN1680-7316
EISSN1680-7324
出版年2016
卷号16期号:8页码:4967-4986
英文摘要

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation’s Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72aEuro-h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.


类型Article
语种英语
国家France ; Chile ; Spain ; England ; Germany ; USA ; Serbia ; Switzerland ; Norway
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000376937000014
WOS关键词CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENT SCHEME ; SAHARAN DUST ; MINERAL DUST ; MEDITERRANEAN BASIN ; AEROSOL CHARACTERIZATION ; RADIATIVE IMPACT ; MIDDLE-EAST ; DESERT DUST ; SYSTEM ; CYCLE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/191562
作者单位1.UPMC, CNRS, IPSL, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France;
2.Univ Chile, Dept Geophys, Santiago, Chile;
3.Univ Chile, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile;
4.BSC CNS, Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Earth Sci Dept, Barcelona, Spain;
5.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;
6.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany;
7.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Pk, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England;
8.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England;
9.Meteorol State Agcy Spain AEMET, Barcelona, Spain;
10.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
11.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA;
12.Natl Hydrometeorol Serv, Belgrade, Serbia;
13.Spanish Res Council, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res, Barcelona, Spain;
14.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland;
15.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway;
16.State Meteorol Agcy Spain AEMET, Izana Atmospher Res Ctr, Santa Cruz De Tenerife, Spain;
17.Tech Univ Catalonia, Environm Modelling Lab, Barcelona, Spain;
18.Geol Survey Spain IGME, Zaragoza, Spain;
19.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;
20.UPMC, CNRS, IPSL, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Huneeus, N.,Basart, S.,Fiedler, S.,et al. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison[J],2016,16(8):4967-4986.
APA Huneeus, N..,Basart, S..,Fiedler, S..,Morcrette, J. -J..,Benedetti, A..,...&Cvetkovic, B..(2016).Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,16(8),4967-4986.
MLA Huneeus, N.,et al."Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 16.8(2016):4967-4986.
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