Arid
DOI10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.005
The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico
Ramirez-Rodrigues, Melissa A.1; Alderman, Phillip D.2,4; Stefanova, Lydia3; Cossani, C. Mariano2,5; Flores, Dagoberto2; Asseng, Senthold1
通讯作者Ramirez-Rodrigues, Melissa A.
来源期刊AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN0308-521X
EISSN1873-2267
出版年2016
卷号147页码:76-86
英文摘要

Half of global wheat production occurs in irrigated cropping regions that face increasing water shortages. In these regions, seasonal forecasts could provide information about in-season climate conditions that could improve resource management, helping to save water and other inputs. However, seasonal forecasts have not been tested in irrigated systems. In this study, we show that seasonal forecasts have the potential to guide crop management decisions in fully irrigated systems (FIS), reduced irrigation systems (supplementary irrigation; SIS), and systems without irrigation (rainfed; RFS) in an arid environment. We found that farmers could gain an additional 2 USD ha(-1) season(-1) in net returns and save up to 26 USD ha(-1) season(-1) in N fertilizer costs with a hypothetical always-correct-season-type-forecast (ACF) in a fully irrigated system compared to simulated optimized N fertilizer applications. In supplementary irrigated systems, an ACF had value when deciding on sowing a crop (plus supplementary irrigation) of up to 65 USD ha(-1) season(-1). In rainfed systems, this value was up to 123 USD ha(-1) when deciding whether or not to sow a crop. In supplementary irrigated and rainfed systems, such value depended on initial soil water conditions. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to assist farmers in irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed cropping systems to maximize crop profitability. However, forecasts currently available based on Global Circulation Models (GCM) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) need higher forecast skill before such benefits can be fully realized. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Arid environment litigation Supplementary irrigation Wheat Mexico Seasonal forecast
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Mexico ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000380418900007
WOS关键词WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; SPRING WHEAT ; WINTER-WHEAT ; MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE ; NITROGEN MANAGEMENT ; FARMING SYSTEMS ; CO-LIMITATION ; YIELD ; VARIABILITY ; SOIL
WOS类目Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Agriculture
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/191088
作者单位1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA;
2.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr, Global Wheat Program, Texcoco, Estado De Mexic, Mexico;
3.Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32310 USA;
4.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA;
5.South Australian Res & Dev Inst, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ramirez-Rodrigues, Melissa A.,Alderman, Phillip D.,Stefanova, Lydia,et al. The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico[J],2016,147:76-86.
APA Ramirez-Rodrigues, Melissa A.,Alderman, Phillip D.,Stefanova, Lydia,Cossani, C. Mariano,Flores, Dagoberto,&Asseng, Senthold.(2016).The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,147,76-86.
MLA Ramirez-Rodrigues, Melissa A.,et al."The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 147(2016):76-86.
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